This is perhaps a turning point in the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and more generally between the Jewish state and the “axis of evil” led by Iran. Great specialist in the contemporary Arab world and author of the bestselling book Prophet in his country (Ed. de l’Observatoire), Gilles Kepel analyzes the recent sequence in the Middle East marked by the “liquidation” of Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut, the bloody attack near the tomb of Qassem Soleimani, in Iran, and the speech more vehement than threatening from Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah (“a mountain that gave birth to a mouse”). For Gilles Kepel, it is a strategic change in Israel which is taking place after the failure of the offensive on Gaza, with the IDF now favoring attacks against the leaders of the “axis of evil”. Which plays into the hands of the United States and the Sunni regimes. On the other hand, the Iranian regime is, for the moment, the big loser.
L’Express: How should we interpret the speech of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah?
Gilles Kepel: Nasrallah ultimately didn’t say much, because he found himself completely stuck. While he was supposed to celebrate the cult of General Qassem Soleimani, assassinated on January 3, 2020, he was caught in the grip of two incredible setbacks: the liquidation, on January 2, of Saleh al-Arouri and five military leaders of Hamas in an ultra-secure apartment in the southern suburbs of Beirut and, the next day, the death of nearly 100 people near the Soleimani mausoleum, in Iran. Nasrallah’s speech was not as listened to as that of November 3, when everyone was expecting the announcement of a world war. But Hezbollah cannot start a war, because Lebanon is in a terrible state as a result.
Does the elimination of Al-Arouri, No. 2 in the Hamas political bureau, mark a turning point in this war?
This liquidation, in a Hezbollah stronghold, is a major event, because it shows a very significant shift in the Israeli offensive in response to the October 7 raid. Benyamin Netanyahu, under pressure in particular from the messianist and religious ministers of the extreme right, on whom he depends for his majority in the Knesset, had engaged in an offensive on Gaza aimed at destroying the infrastructure and killing Yahya Sinouar, to whom was blamed on October 7. However, this offensive failed, since Hamas is still present in the tunnels, as the attacks against Israeli soldiers have proven.
On the other hand, the massacre in Gaza, probably more than 20,000 dead and 2 million displaced people, who are in a situation of absolute food insecurity, according to the UN, had a catastrophic effect for Israel, both outside and inside, since the people who were victims of a genocide were in turn accused of being genocidal. This also had an important effect on American support, which is vital, including for the conduct of this war against Hamas, the Israeli army being totally dependent on supplies of munitions provided by the Americans.
There has thus been considerable pressure from Washington to reorganize the Israeli response. Especially since Joe Biden’s uncritical support for Israel has alienated a significant part of the Democratic vote in general, and young people in particular, which puts him in difficulty in the polls, especially if Donald Trump is the candidate opposite . The United States therefore pushed Israel to stop the offensive in Gaza, which was largely dictated by the messianist settlers gathered around Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich [NDLR : ministres de la Sécurité nationale et des Finances]. People who were born in the colonies and are the heirs of religious Zionism, for whom the invasion of Gaza must result in the expulsion of its population, and the reconstitution of the settlements which had been forcibly evacuated in 2005 by Ariel Sharon.
Is this, for Israel, a return to a more traditional military strategy?
Yes. Israeli intelligence has specialized in the elimination of leaders, beyond Hamas itself, of what is called “the axis of resistance”, led from Tehran and with Hezbollah in Lebanon as its main relays. , but also the Houthis, who hold northern Yemen, or the Syrian regime. Four combat brigades have been withdrawn from Gaza. And, at the same time, there is a series of military offensives which are much more in line with the logic of the Israeli army, and less dependent on the political agenda of religious messianists. The first, the importance of which was not sufficiently understood, was the liquidation on December 25, in Damascus, of General Seyed Razi Moussavi, the highest ranking officer in the Al-Quds Force of the Iranian Pasdaran. Mousavi was the main coordinator of the “axis of resistance” for the Middle East. The fact that he could have been killed in an ultra-secure Shiite neighborhood in Damascus indicates a deficiency of the Syrian regime. But it was also the first sign of a reorientation of the Israeli offensive, no longer against Gaza by punishing civilians with disastrous effect, but against the decision-makers of the “axis of resistance”, whose elimination cannot arouses no dispute on American campuses.
Then there was the liquidation of Al-Arouri. It is a military feat in the beating heart of Hezbollah in Lebanon. For the moment, exchanges of missile fire at the border seem to be Hezbollah’s only response to maintaining its credibility. Already, on November 3, Nasrallah had not unleashed lightning in response to the Israeli offensive on Gaza, since he could not afford to drag Lebanon into a new war. Hezbollah drew its main prestige from the “divine victory” during the “33-day war” in 2006. But the consequences, in the medium term, were the economic collapse of the country. If Hezbollah opts for an armed attack against Israel today, it simply risks the collapse of Lebanon.
The timing of Al-Arouri’s liquidation was also skillfully managed, since it preceded by a few hours Nasrallah’s speech, launched like a Hollywood blockbuster, with the leader of Hezbollah serving to say, in Arabic, what what does the “axis of resistance” think, which has much more impact than in Persian. But the “unfortunate” Nasrallah was forced to redo his speech at the last minute. He of course deplored the death of Al-Arouri, which adds one more martyr in Shiite martyrology, but above all proves that Hezbollah was found wanting. Especially since Al-Arouri was a very important character. In principle, he was number 2 in the Hamas political bureau. But the leaders of Hamas in exile in Qatar, Ismaïl Haniyeh and Khaled Mechaal, were more sensitive to a process of co-management of Gaza with Qatar, with the tacit consent of Netanyahu. On the other hand, Al-Arouri, initially responsible for the West Bank, has a profile closer to Sinouar. He was Hamas’ intermediary with Hezbollah and Iran, and was at the heart of the “axis of resistance”. His death is therefore a major operational blow for Israel.
At the moment, Saudi Arabia is more talked about in terms of football than the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Is this the right strategy for Riyadh?
Without saying it, most Sunni leaders rhetorically condemn Israel, if only to avoid alienating their population. But, in reality, Abraham’s agreements have not been called into question in any way.
Israel is currently giving priority to options other than the offensive in Gaza, which bothered the United States and the Sunni leaders, potential allies. The military establishment appears to have regained control to the detriment of the alliance between Netanyahu and the messianists. This was reinforced by the fact that the Supreme Court, on January 1, invalidated Netanyahu’s judicial reform. The latter is still largely responsible for October 7, by allowing settler settlements to take place in the West Bank while having pursued a conciliatory policy with Hamas, thinking that it was enough to corrupt its leaders. The trauma of the pogrom of October 7 was such that Ben Gvir and Smotrich were able to lead a headlong flight. But today, due to pressure from the United States – let us not forget that American Judaism weighs as much as Jews in Israel – and the decision of the Supreme Court, which prevents Netanyahu from benefiting from a total impunity, and from the professionals of the Israeli army, better experts on the international system than the band of madmen in power, there is a visible shift, which suits Sunni regimes like Saudi Arabia.
When Israel attacks Gaza, this cannot be supported by Sunni countries. But when the Jewish state attacks Hezbollah and Iran, this arouses silent but great satisfaction from most Sunni leaders. They themselves are threatened by the “axis of resistance”, as we see with the attacks of the Houthis, pushed by the Iranians, who aim to interrupt passage through the Red Sea, which accounts for 12% of world trade. The Saudis do not dare to join the military coalition led by the United States against the Houthis, because they are afraid that the latter will resume their attacks against Saudi territory, with the active support of the IRGC. But we must not forget that, in the conflict between Shiites and Sunnis, Israel is firmly committed to the side of the Sunnis. We must also remember that October 7 followed the second successive visit of an Israeli minister to Saudi Arabia, in preparation for a deal so that Riyadh would eventually recognize Israel.
What can Iran do in response?
The outrage suffered by Tehran is gigantic, the Iranian regime having been the victim of a gigantic security breach with the deadliest attack in the country since 1979 (which has just been claimed by the Islamic State, editor’s note). On the Hezbollah side, this is the second time that a speech by Nasrallah presented as a mountain has given birth to a mouse. In any case, if the Iranian regime does not find a solution, it will put the entire “axis of resistance” in a position of great weakness, and lose all the benefits it derived from Netanyahu’s delusional policy having caused the deaths of more than 20,000 civilians in Gaza.
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