It is a great political shipwreck. With the invasion of Ukraine, the Germans are forced to note, with great bitterness, the failure of their “dialogue strategy” with Vladimir Putin. The left in particular, with in the front line the “SPD Connection” led by the former Social Democratic Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, is covered in shame by a “comprehensive” policy vis-à-vis Moscow – they are called the “Putin- Versteher”, “those who understand Putin” -, and by his strategy of maintaining peace through the development of economic relations.
“The successive governments have never realized the gravity of the situation. Even after taking office, Olaf Scholz underestimated the threat. He never believed that there would be a war”, insists Christian Mölling, defense expert at the German Foreign Policy Institute.
The Germans have however had many warnings about Putin’s methods: cyberattacks against the federal assembly (the Bundestag), poisoning of the Russian opponent Alexeï Navalny, execution sponsored by Moscow of a Chechen opponent in the heart of Berlin… However, they remained entrenched in their “constructive dialogue”, modeled on the policy of detente, the “Ostpolitik”, of the 1970s and 1980s. “Germany conducted a policy, vis-à-vis Moscow, in assuming that there was no security problem,” said Janis Kluge, Russia expert at the German Institute for International Relations and Security.
Nord Stream 2, symbol of blindness
February 24 was therefore a shock. Germany is forced to overhaul its entire energy policy of the past twenty years. Due to the penaltiesit will have to reorganize its supply of fossil energy, Russia supplying Germany with 55% of its gas, nearly half of its coal and 35% of its oil.
While they had bet on Russian gas for their energy transition, the Germans could be forced to import shale gas, which government environmentalists are fiercely opposed to. Even the extension of the life of the last three nuclear power plants, which were to remain in service only until the end of the year, will have to be discussed.
The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which bypasses Central Europe through the Baltic Sea, is the symbol of German blindness. Berlin has completely ignored the geostrategic aspect of this political project directed against Ukraine. “We made the mistake of putting ourselves in a situation of dependence vis-à-vis a despot,” lamented Robert Habeck, the new Ecologist Minister of Economy and Climate, who was opposed to this geopolitical project before. to come to power. “We should never have built Nord Stream 2.” Suspended in extremis before its commissioning, the “Putin gas pipeline” will probably never see the light of day.
A “broken” army
It is also the whole defense policy – if there was one – that must be rethought. “For twenty years Germany has not invested in its army. We are paying for the strategic errors of the past. The upgrading of infrastructure and equipment will last at least fifteen years”, explains Christian Mölling. The Minister of Finance, who had planned to further reduce military spending to finance the energy transition, hastened to correct his calculations: “A defense budget which is decreasing is no longer relevant”, conceded Christian Lindner, the day of the invasion.
Army Chief Alfons Mais went even further in the admission of failure. Its soldiers are currently unable to participate in a full-scale armed conflict in an international alliance. “The army that I have the honor to lead is, so to speak, broke, he laments. It is high time to reorganize, otherwise we will be unable to fulfill our mission and our obligations to our allies. .” No politician has contradicted him. “No one knows the state of the Bundeswehr better [NDLR : l’armée allemande] than him,” says Christian Mölling.
For her part, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK), the former Defense Minister, believes that Germany has never done anything to dissuade Vladimir Putin. “My anger is limitless, it’s a historic defeat,” said this close to Angela Merkel. Germany, which has always dreamed of becoming a greater Switzerland, will no longer be able to hide behind “historical reasons” to refuse, for example, arms deliveries to the Ukrainians or to participate in combat. “His moral standards served him for years to discard. However, today it is the expression of his powerlessness”, criticizes Christian Mölling before adding: “His neutrality has, somewhere, made him co-responsible of this war.