The field seemed reserved for experts. However, quantum computing is beginning to burst into the daily lives of the general public, with the media keen not to miss the next technological revolutions. In December, one of the most popular TV programs in the United States, 60 Minutes, even devoted a topic to it, asserting that quantum computers will be able to solve in a few minutes problems that would take millions of years for current supercomputers. To understand this craze, we have to go back a few years. In 2019, Google claimed a form of quantum supremacy, a term for the stage where a quantum device completes tasks beyond the reach of a classical device. This announcement triggered an unprecedented wave of fundraising, with teams leaving research laboratories to launch their start-ups, a movement accompanied by prophecies about a technology capable of solving the challenges of science, health and even change. climatic.
According to State of Quantum 2024 Report, investments quintupled between 2017 and 2021, from $400 million to $2.2 billion, and remained at this level in 2022. But the promises fizzled, and investors withdrew. Funding fell by half in 2023 worldwide, and even by 80% in the United States. Matthias Troyer, who leads Microsoft’s quantum computing efforts, said the number of applications where quantum computers could provide significant benefit is much more limited than some would have you believe. He also dared to compare the performance of a quantum computer with a latest generation Nvidia card. That was all it took for the idea of a quantum “winter” to emerge, as artificial intelligence has experienced so many times.
In reality, the sector is entering a period of maturity. Beyond private financing which seeks too rapid returns, 33 governments have promised 40 to 50 billion dollars in public financing over the next ten years. Quantum computing training continues to attract new talents, who will constitute the pool of future researchers and entrepreneurs. Europe is resisting, funding there has even recorded a slight increase in 2023, notably with French successes such as Pasqal (100 million euros), Quellela (55 million) or Alice & Bob (27 million). Our British neighbor has undoubtedly unveiled the most ambitious plan to date, with the mission to create a quantum computer capable of performing 1,000 billion operations without error by 2035, well beyond our supercomputers current.
The horizon of quantum supremacy is slipping away
In this race for big numbers, IBM and Atom Computing recently unveiled devices with more than 1,000 qubits, nearly triple the largest previous quantum computers. But the arrival of these devices has not led to a dramatic increase in computing capabilities, because larger quantum computers often also make more errors. This is why the various laboratories and companies are now focusing their efforts on resolving these issues. In December, Boston start-up QuEra produced the largest number of error-free qubits: 48.
With the horizon of quantum supremacy slipping further and further each year, not many people dare to make predictions. Optimists expect seven or eight years. The objective is to obtain short-term results before arriving at this revolution. The second part of the National Quantum Initiative in the United States – $3 billion over the next five years -, even if it was supported by both parties, was refocused on quickly concrete applications, to try to demonstrate the viability of this technology. Reason why the State of Quantum 2024 Report predicts the development of hybrid solutions where part of the calculation will be carried out by a traditional microprocessor architecture and another by a quantum architecture.
Robin Rivaton is Managing Director of Stonal and member of the Scientific Council of the Foundation for Political Innovation (Fondapol)
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