A setback, a danger or even an absolute catastrophe. Environmental defenders do not have harsh enough words for Donald Trump, the undisputed winner of the American presidential elections on November 5. It must be said that his first term (2017-2021) left them with very bad memories. Beyond his sweeping declarations – “Climate change is a hoax” or “Nobody cares about the rise of the oceans” – the leader of the Republicans has never stopped undermine the green policies of his predecessors. Under his presidency, some 125 U.S. environmental regulations and policies were rolled back. The United States was the first country to withdraw from the Paris agreement, drilling was authorized in protected areas of Alaska, rules aimed at reducing pollution from gas plants, combustion engine vehicles and oil wells have been relaxed…
Coming to power four years later, Joe Biden put the country back on the right path, restoring many of the rules that had been removed by the Trump administration. But the real estate mogul’s resounding victory certainly means a another flashback. The American media are already counting the numbers: it will not be long before the United States leaves the Paris Agreement again and reconsiders its involvement in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. A major policy change. Once freed from these “fetters”, Trump and his allies could relax regulations on methane emissions – which have a greater warming power than CO2 – and even attack the legal basis stating that carbon dioxide emissions harm human health, according to an article in New York Times. The new president also warned that he would put obstacles in the way of all the states which, like California, set ambitious climate objectives by focusing in particular on renewable energies.
“Potentially slower adoption of electric cars under a Trump administration could push back peak U.S. oil demand by a decade,” already warns an analysis from Wood Mackenzie, a company providing data on the energy transition . Worst case scenario? Donald Trump could decide to attack the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a legacy of the Democrats and the biggest machine to subsidize green technologies ever implemented in the United States. The new president could also follow the instructions of the famous “Project 2025” written with verve by the conservatives. If this were the case, the number of projects linked to renewable energies would collapse, particularly in wind power. American CO2 emissions would increase by more than 18% compared to their current trajectory.
A freewheeling America
However, even in a less aggressive scenario, in which no new climate policies are adopted but the IRA is maintained, the United States would at best achieve 80% of its climate goals in 2030, according to calculations by the Rhodium group . Worse, this relaxation risks spilling over and complicating negotiations at the next COP, which starts this November 11 in Baku.
“The US election result should not be used as an excuse for world leaders to avoid taking action on climate change. We must redouble our efforts and prove that we can work together for the common good by providing the financing needed to the fight against climate change at the next COP29 in Baku”, warns Mary Robinson, former Prime Minister of Ireland. But for many analysts, the United States’ new position on climate will undoubtedly reduce the pressure exerted on other major emitters of greenhouse gases, such as China.
With the United States fading on climate issues, the role of the European Union could become crucial. The Old Continent also has its constraints: degraded public finances and public support for the ecological transition which is fading. “I sincerely hope that the recent hurricanes that hit the United States have caused President Trump to rethink his belief that climate change will create ‘more oceanfront properties,'” says Mary Robinson. Stuck between a freewheeling America and a China unwilling to pay to save the planet, Europe risks feeling very alone.
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