After an autumn marked by Storm Kirk and significant rainfall, France is preparing to face a new winter. Weather specialists already have forecasts.
Although it is not over, autumn 2024 has already put France to the test! In early October, Storm Kirk passed through the country, bringing high winds and record rainfall to many areas. In 24 hours, the equivalent of a month of rain fell in Paris and Nantes, causing massive floods and floods in areas already weakened by a particularly rainy start to autumn. With the ground saturated with water, several rivers have seen their levels exceed those of historic floods!
Obviously, all eyes are on this winter and the weather that awaits us. And even if it is impossible to read the future, we can already get a little idea thanks to the different weather forecasts. Established from extremely complex mathematical models, these predictions take into account a myriad of data from the atmosphere and oceans on a global scale.
This work requires colossal computing resources and is based on global trends, such as the impact of an El Niño episode, which can influence the distribution of temperatures and precipitation on several continents, including Europe. But be careful, these forecasts nevertheless remain purely speculative!
Early weather models suggest a milder than average winter of 2024-2025, with an expected decrease in precipitation. According to the Météo France agency, temperatures should be slightly above seasonal norms, following the warming trend observed in recent years in Western Europe, linked to climate change. This should allow you to save some money on heating! But it is also possible that they conform to seasonal norms.
Be careful, this does not mean that we will be completely spared! Weather experts still anticipate several cold waves, which will occur occasionally, particularly at the end of January and beginning of February. Intense but short-lived frosts could occur in the northeastern regions and mountain territories.
For its part, La Chaîne Météo anticipates oceanic disturbances, usually responsible for winter rains, less frequent this year, particularly in the south-east of France during the months of November, December and February. This is believed to be due to the effects of La Niña, which results in drier than normal conditions across Western Europe. Enough to raise some concerns about future episodes of drought, if the water tables do not manage to recharge this winter.
In short, the winter of 2024-2025 does not seem to be particularly harsh. For the moment, it looks milder than usual, with a reduction in precipitation. But caution is still required! We are not immune to rapid and unpredictable changes, which could disrupt these initial seasonal forecasts. Recent floods have shown how quickly the weather situation can change. We therefore advise you to stay tuned to the weather reports.