Approximately 1.5 years have passed since Ukraine was invaded.
The sanctions against Russia have since replaced each other. Last week the US issued a series of new measures against Russian individuals and organizations and this summer the EU decided on the eleventh package of sanctions in the order.
Despite that, Russia has been able to continue its war and Putin still has access to both money and missiles – so the question is: do the sanctions bite?
– They do, then maybe they don’t bite as quickly as we had hoped. We must remember that in 2022 you were paid a lot for the oil and gas that you could sell on the world market. That money is being used now, says Torbjörn Becker, director of the Eastern Economic Institute at the Stockholm School of Economics.
The buffer is running out
Russian gas exports will continue, but this year at a significantly lower price, Becker explains – and soon the consequences of this will become clear.
– Slowly but surely the buffer you built up last year is running out, he says.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the ruble dropped like a stone, but when oil prices took off, the Russian currency strengthened again. Now it is again at very low levels, compared to the US dollar.
At the same time, it is difficult to know exactly how the economy in the country is doing, as the propaganda state only publishes the figures they want.
– Transparency has become much worse. We have to guess a little more now when talking about how the Russian economy is doing, says Torbjörn Becker.
“Bulvannations”
Lots of sanctions have been directed at Russia and the Russian population, both in terms of imports and exports, but there are still ways for the country to still get the products it needs – including through “bull nations”.
– Russia must find the products elsewhere. Either you buy cheap copies or worse copies from somewhere else, or other countries trade with the West and then send it on to Russia. We see clear signs of that, says Torbjörn Becker.
– The Russian people notice it both in terms of having to pay more and in many cases not getting the same quality, he continues.
“Delicate balance”
The problem is something that is discussed in the West and is something that you want to limit, but the big problem is China, whose large economy can be compared to that of the EU or the USA.
– It is not as easy to put pressure on them. It’s a delicate balancing act.
Torbjörn Becker explains that there are now discussions about lowering the price ceiling on Russian oil even more and that more sanctions will follow.