When today’s young people celebrate their 60th birthdays, the world will look very different than it does today. The lion’s share of those of working age are Africans, while Europe has a lot of elderly people and the population in general is only one-fifth of Africa’s inhabitants.
We asked Demo Finland’s acting from the executive director Rilli from Lappalainen and from Bios’ environmental researcher Ville From the sourcehow Africa’s growth can change the world and what it might look like in 40 years.
Demo Finland is a cooperation organization of all parliamentary parties that promotes democracy. Bios is an independent multidisciplinary research unit that anticipates socio-ecological changes.
Lappalainen is also an umbrella organization of European development organizations of CONCORD chairman.
From the graphic you can see that the population of Africa is predicted to double by 2064.
The population forecast is fulfilled or not
Ville Lähde states right from the start that the forecast of strong population growth in Africa may or may not come true.
– If the birth rate in Africa remains as high as predicted, it means that there has been no success in fighting poverty and promoting education, women’s status, health care and sanitation.
If, on the other hand, a change for the better can be quickly achieved in Africa, the population will not grow so large, Lähde estimates.
A ticking time bomb
According to both Lähti and Lappalainen, the direction of world change largely depends on whether states are able to move from the logic of competition to cooperation, justice and solidarity.
Now the direction of the economy has been the growth of inequality, Lappalainen states.
– If the market value of the ten largest companies in the world is greater than that of Latin America and Africa combined, it certainly means that not everything is right in this world.
In 2022, Africa’s share of the world’s gross domestic product was less than three percent.
Lappalainen points out that out of the current eight billion people, five billion live close to the poverty line.
According to him, this is a ticking time bomb. If young people get frustrated and cannot support themselves in their home region, the effects are global.
Population dividend or population bomb
The situation is not hopeless: Africa has natural resources and, unlike most other regions, population aging is not a problem.
– If Africa’s population growth slows down, in the next few decades there will be vastly more people of working age than the elderly and children, Lähde states.
This gives huge opportunities. If countries manage to develop their own livelihoods, they receive the so-called population dividend, which means they have a historically high number of opportunities to develop their societies thanks to a good demographic structure.
– But if people don’t have enough to do, it can be a population bomb.
The source believes that, even in the best case, it is a matter of a combination of Africa’s favorable development and the need for jobs. The growing population needs opportunities to find work elsewhere as well.
Lähde and Lappalainen point out that African countries must be strongly supported in order for them to develop sustainably and in a controlled manner. This also means more sustainable and controlled development in Europe.
– If it is not considered possible for more prosperous countries to support the transition of poorer people or a fairer trade and climate policy, good development is not possible, Lähde says.
Lappalainen considers it a fool’s business that Finland and many other countries are cutting development cooperation funds.
He reminds that cooperation should not be done with business logic, where results are wanted immediately. For example, eradicating corruption strengthens the rule of law, but it is a long-term task, starting with the training of lawyers.
Education and democracy also create the conditions for people to be able to take responsibility and manage things in such a way that the benefits remain on the ground.
Many Africans are only now starting to wake up and ask why foreign companies run the mining industry in Africa, for example, and not themselves, says Lappalainen.
Controlled or sudden migration
The direction of Africa’s development also affects whether migrants from there come elsewhere in a controlled manner or suddenly.
Lappalainen and Lähde consider migration to some extent inevitable, for example because aging prosperous countries cannot do without workers from elsewhere.
According to Lappalainen, in the future Europe will have to compromise on welfare to some extent, but even more so if we don’t allow people to move to Europe.
He reminds that most people want to live in their home region, where they have spiritual and cultural ties.
– But if there are no living conditions, we have also once gone to, for example, the United States and Sweden. It is normal to leave for a better life elsewhere.
Lappalainen emphasizes that the number of immigrants in Europe is small compared to how many internal migrants there are in Africa.
However, this may change if climate change cannot be curbed and large areas on Earth become unlivable, says Lähde.
– This means such migrations, of which we have no historical experience. It is difficult to predict what will happen if the areas where millions of people live become unlivable.
In Africa, fuel consumption will inevitably increase as basic infrastructure is built there. The key is whether support can be obtained there, for example, to build a system based on renewable energy sources, so that the phase based on fossil fuels can be bypassed.
The world order is changing
According to Lappalainen, the current multilateral world order is crumbling at its joints. For example, the UN Security Council does not work as it should.
The voices of developing countries have become stronger and they demand more equal treatment, such as access to the UN Security Council.
– Other countries are fed up that the West has dictated the world order for so many hundreds of years, it will be challenged. The system is changing whether we like it or not. The question is how. Hopefully not through violent means, but through negotiation and cooperation.
One example of change is the community of developing countries Brics enlargement. The organization founded by Russia, China, India, Brazil and South Africa was recently joined by Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Lappalainen sees the fact that the African Union has joined the G20 group of prosperous countries as a welcome sign of a possible equalization of the debate. The EU has already been involved.
Lähde is also of the opinion that if we want a more sustainable development that avoids catastrophic changes, power relations must change.
– Europe will not develop safely in the coming decades if we do not ensure better development in our surrounding areas.
The source points out that many people in Africa have sympathy for Russia because of the behavior of European countries.
The EU also competes with China for influence in Africa. According to Lappalainen, it does not send a good message about the desire for cooperation if the EU closes the borders, but wants to trade.
– The wisdom would come from us being more tolerant, more open to different kinds of cooperation, Lappalainen states.