This is what could happen in Finland in 2035:
A patient suffering from kidney diseases is in home care. He has a Chinese treatment device. However, the device is hacked to give false values, and the patient’s condition collapses. Life is in danger.
The example is one prepared by Finnish researchers future scenarios. They describe the problems that can be caused by too much economic dependence on great powers, in this case China.
– China is currently investing a lot in high-tech products. It is possible that it will be able to cheaply produce, for example, home dialysis equipment. If they have internet connections, they may involve information security risks, says a senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Elina Sinkkonen.
He is one of the authors of the new report published by the institute. It reflects on Finland’s and Sweden’s dependence on China, but also to some extent on the United States.
The examples in the report mostly concern China. However, in the field of advanced technology, such as the maintenance of future air force fighters, Finland is dependent on the United States.
Savings pressures can lead to risky purchases
According to Elina Sinkkonen, risks related to hospital equipment, for example, are increased by the fact that Finland is under pressure to make savings in healthcare. The current government also intends to implement them.
In competition, you can end up with, for example, a cheaper Chinese device. At the moment, according to the authors of the report, in Finland, people stare too much at euro amounts and choose only one winner.
– Then we’re in trouble if our own backup stocks run out, says Sinkkonen.
The risk of dependence on China is also related to China’s own policy. China’s rhetoric and actions towards Taiwan have become increasingly threatening.
If China were to occupy Taiwan, Finland could be in a hurry to break away from China. Dependence on life-sustaining Chinese devices would make that difficult – if such dependencies are allowed to arise.
The researchers urge Finland to consider new tenders.
– Factors other than price should be taken into account in the competition. For example, you could choose two or three producers instead of one when making purchases for a large hospital, says Sinkkonen.
Dependence on China is much greater than dependence on Russia
The background of dependence on China is China’s growth and gradual rise to an international economic power. Recently, there have also been reports of economic growth slowing down, but for example the export of electric cars to the world is growing at a furious pace.
– Western countries themselves have been supporting globalization and thus creating unnecessarily vulnerable production chains in hindsight, says Sinkkonen.
Finland’s connection to China is much more significant than its connection to Russia. Dependence on Russia has mainly been about energy, says the China researcher Liisa Kauppila from the University of Turku. He is also one of the authors of the report of the Foreign Policy Institute
– Dependence on China is huge. China plays such a dominant role in supply chains even in areas that, for example, are not talked about much in the media, such as chemicals and components used in water purification, says Kauppila.
Recently, there has also been a lot of talk about the risks, especially in the case of the green transition and the rare metals needed by the battery industry, and there have even been calls for a complete withdrawal from them.
Nevertheless, imports from China to the EU region doubled in 2018-2022.
– General risk awareness must change, says Kauppila.
Finland does not monitor certain Chinese investments at all
According to researchers, a complete separation from China is unrealistic. And reducing addictions is not easy either.
According to the researchers, it is most difficult in technological addictions. However, dependencies could be reduced by more closely monitoring foreign holdings.
In Finland, the legislation does not control so-called greenfield investments at all. It means that a foreign company establishes a company in Finland directly instead of buying a company in Finland.
An example of a greenfield investment project is the pending biorefinery Kaidi in Kemi, which would have been founded by the Chinese Sunshine Kaidi New Energy Group. The project however, the permit process was interrupted at the beginning of the year.
Elina Sinkkonen reminds that, with the 2017 Intelligence Act, China can oblige Chinese individuals and organizations to assist the state as intelligence agents if necessary.
– Consequently, information related to Finns may be transferred to China through a Chinese-owned company operating in Finland, if the Chinese state so requires, says Sinkkonen.
According to him, it is possible that rapid economic and political changes will take place in authoritarian China, which could affect Chinese-owned companies in the Nordic countries as well.
Sweden is much more critical of Chinese investments
In December, a law reform will enter into force in Sweden, with which the authorities must be notified of acquisitions or greenfield investments in critical sectors. The policy also applies to Swedish investors.
– The idea is that it can be used to monitor bullies, i.e. to prevent, for example, a Chinese investor from getting access to an important industry through an intermediary, Kauppila says. He has written a report on the subject for the Swedish National Center for China Research.
According to Kauppila, Sweden’s approach is even protectionist on a European scale, i.e. protecting its own economy.
– The development is interesting, because Sweden has been a stronghold of the free market economy. There has been no monitoring of company acquisitions in the country for decades. Now it goes from zero to a hundred, Kauppila says.
The researchers are following up the value discussion
While the researchers hope for better awareness of the risks, they also hope for a value discussion about what kind of changes are ready for societies like Finland and Sweden.
– If we start tightening the legislation terribly, we can ask whether we will be a free economy after that or whether we will become more and more like China, Liisa Kauppila points out.
Elina Sinkkonen also urges us to think about what kind of solutions Finland is ready for in order to reduce dependence on China, for example in terms of minerals.
The EU has outlined that Europe must increase its self-sufficiency in rare earth metals. There are deposits of rare earth metals in Finland and Sweden as well, and several new mining projects are pending. There are many challenges associated with their implementation.
– We should be ready to discuss whether we want these mines. It can take decades to open them, they involve nature values and they are very expensive to establish, says Sinkkonen.
According to the researchers, there should be as wide a social discussion as possible about reducing addictions.