(Finance) – Based on first 2024 data on electronic invoicing, a decline is expected in turnover in the construction sector. In the first eight months of the year the taxable VAT amount for construction was reduced by 3.7% compared to a year earlier. Also the Istat economic data relating to production in the sector recorded a -4.6% for the first 8 months of the year. For the whole of 2024, a decline of 4% is therefore expected in the turnover of joint-stock companies operating in this sector. In absolute value this would be a loss of approximately 8 billion euros. These are the figures contained in the “Observatory on the financial statements of joint-stock companies in the construction sector: previews of financial statements for 2023 and final data for financial statements for 2022” of the National Foundation of Accountants.
According to the Foundation, these data “represent a important consolidation of the results achieved in 2023. Compared to 2019, in fact, the pre-pandemic year, the turnover at the end of 2023, as estimated on the basis of the partial data examined, increased by 93% (+101.6% if we consider the data relating to the VAT base recorded through the monthly flows of electronic invoicing from the Mef, Finance Department). With the decline expected for 2024, the change compared to 2019 would still be +82.4%”.
After the decline, however limited, suffered in 2020 due to the pandemic, the turnover of companies in the construction sector recorded a clear rebound in 2021 (+33.4%), followed by more contained, but still significant, annual increases in 2022 (+24.6%) and 2023 (+21.9%). The turnover dynamics in the post-pandemic period is significantly more lively than in the previous period, characterized by annual increases of just over 5%. “The slowdown in 2023 – explain the accountants – is certainly physiological but is also probably due to the restrictions on the Superbonus compared to the previous year. In any case, the increase in turnover recorded is higher than that relating to all economic sectors: according to Mef data on the trend of the VAT base detected through electronic invoicing in 2023, the overall turnover of all economic sectors has decreased by 3.1%”.
More “worrying” for accountants are the forecasts for 2025 which include a slowdown in investments in construction due to a series of adverse economic factors, including, in addition to the progressive reduction of incentives for the redevelopment of homes, the increase in financing costs, which remain high despite the change in direction of European monetary policy, and credit restrictions. A new recovery, however, is expected during 2026, thanks above all to the expansive effects of some PNRR programs that impact the construction sector.
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