KIEV Now that the Russian armed forces have been floundering in Ukraine for a year, most Ukrainians and Finns believe in Ukraine’s victory.
It is pure hope, says a high-ranking Finnish officer who has been following the war on the ground since last April.
In the officer’s opinion, the Ukrainian troops do not know how to attack and their training is at the back, as if directly from the Soviet Union.
– Ukrainians imagine that they are good soldiers. However, it doesn’t make you a skilled soldier to be afraid in the trenches for eight years. Education makes a soldier, an officer downloads.
Therefore, the Finnish officer has taken it upon himself to improve the training of Ukrainian soldiers, especially non-commissioned officers.
He does not want to appear in public with his own name or face. According to the officer, with his military rank, his actions in Ukraine could arouse anger even in Russia, although he is no longer in permanent service in Finland and does not represent Finland anyway.
Being anonymous, he can also talk about the situation with exceptional frankness.
His identity is known to . met him in January in the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv.
The officer is a dissident of the war, as many Western experts believe in Ukraine’s war success. In the interview he gave to , the officer demolishes several established concepts about war.
In the officer’s opinion, the only thing that has saved Ukraine so far is that Russia has fallen into equally bad mistakes. However, Russia’s mistakes should not be trifled with.
– The Russian troops have learned their lesson, but the Ukrainians haven’t, the officer says.
Officer: Ukraine’s and Russia’s losses are equally heavy
In the officer’s opinion, the level of competence of the Ukrainian armed forces is confusingly low – and the more he has seen of it, the worse he thinks the level is.
– Really bad leadership, bad tactical and fighting skills. They have taken examples mainly from video games and movies, the officer says.
Particularly fatal for the continuation of the war is the fact that the officer believes that the Ukrainian forces are incapable of fast-paced mobile warfare. That’s why the war has degenerated into old-fashioned positional warfare, where the soldiers of the other side are killed with artillery.
– Ukraine’s attack is a frontal attack. You don’t know how to hook, the officer says.
According to the officer, a frontal attack is easier to lead, but the end result is a barely moving front line and huge losses. The price of a positional war is heavy for both, but Ukraine has less reserves than Russia.
Based on the information he gathered from the front, the officer estimates that Ukraine’s losses in the war are at the same level as Russia’s.
According to Ukraine’s official estimate, Russia has already lost around 150,000 soldiers in the war, but Western estimates are lower. Ukraine does not talk about its own losses.
Ukraine’s counterattacks “lucky”
Of course, Ukraine has regained control of some of the areas that Russia occupied at the beginning of its major offensive in the direction of Kiev, Kharkiv and Kherson.
– They were lucky, the officer acknowledges.
The officer criticizes the Ukrainians for not trying to block the Russians. Defeating the attacker with a blockade would save the cities, because buildings would not have to be bombed to the ground, as happened, for example, in the northwestern suburbs of Kyiv last spring.
According to the officer, there would also have been excellent conditions for guerrilla activity on the northwest side of Kyiv, but Ukraine did not use that method. In addition, the Russian attack would have been stopped faster with the use of mines.
Instead of Ukraine’s merits, Russia’s withdrawal was due, in the officer’s opinion, to Russia’s own mistakes.
In the case of Kharkiv, Russia had left a gap in the front, which was mainly filled by the Donbas rebels. Ukraine captured the area east of Kharkiv quickly and almost without fighting, as few soldiers of the opposing side fled.
Russia also withdrew from Kherson almost without resistance. The withdrawal of the Russians was mainly due to the fact that Ukraine destroyed the bridges over the Dnieper River, making it impossible to maintain the troops.
Now the same lack of bridges prevents Ukraine from attacking the east bank of the river. And Ukraine has not attacked elsewhere either.
– It seems that Russia has an initiative. One could almost say that Ukraine is losing the war if nothing decisive happens, the officer says.
Officer: If Crimea is threatened, Russia would use a nuclear weapon
According to the officer, it is wishful thinking that Ukraine would ever take Crimea back.
– It is unlikely that Ukraine will even get Donbas, so if they could even get to the starting point, it would be a defensive victory, the officer says.
In the officer’s opinion, the biggest problem is not the lack of weaponry, but the fact that the skills of the Ukrainian armed forces are simply not enough.
– The Ukrainians have a terrible will and desire to win, but with this warfare it will not succeed. I haven’t seen any signs of it, the officer says.
He reminds that Crimea is very important to Russia.
– Russia will not lose this war, because Russia is a nuclear weapon state. If Ukraine launched a major attack against Crimea, Russia would probably use a tactical nuclear weapon, the officer says.
He believes that as a result of the war, Ukraine will have to give up the territories occupied by Russia, as it would be too difficult to evict the Russian soldiers.
– This is not the end of Ukraine, but the border is changing. It has to be accepted, just like we did in the winter war. Nothing can be done about it, the officer predicts.
Ukraine dominates Western public opinion
The scenario of Ukraine’s territorial losses sounds bad in Finland and Europe. In the officer’s opinion, it is due to unmet expectations fueled by the public.
According to the officer, the Western countries’ image of the war situation depends entirely on the information produced by Ukraine. The other side is not listened to, which is understandable since Russia lies so blatantly.
– The media is fully involved in Ukrainian propaganda. In a way, it is hyped that Ukraine would win, the officer says.
According to the officer, the most realism can be found in the US intelligence agencies, but how much of it ends up in the allies is another matter.
In the officer’s opinion, even the leadership of the Finnish state does not have a realistic view of the power relations of the war, because its picture of the situation is mainly based on public sources.
– Marin says that the war will end when Russia leaves Ukraine. Not going to happen. In Finland, we are overoptimistic, the officer says.
According to the officer, the situation at the front looks really bad for Ukraine. The chances of a Ukrainian counterattack are slim.
“Ukrainians haven’t been able to get through Russia’s fortified positions really anywhere,” the officer says.
– If the real picture was given to the public, then everyone would start to become skeptical. And the will to win would fade. But the truth should be understood, he continues.
Finnish education would suit Ukraine perfectly
The West is trying to turn the balance of power in Ukraine’s favor with massive arms aid. The officer thinks it is necessary, but it is not enough.
According to him, the most effective way to change the situation would be better training of soldiers – and Finnish military training would suit the Ukrainians very well.
– The Finnish army currently has the best training in the world against Russia. We have been practicing it for a hundred years, even fought two wars, the officer reminds.
The United States has specially trained Ukrainian special forces, but the model does not receive praise from the officers.
– No one else has such kura ladder skills in the forest and terrain as Finland. That should be trained here, he says.
Finns have already provided some training in Ukraine. However, it has been small-scale and has taken place on a voluntary basis. According to the officer, there would be any number of willing trainers in Finland if the defense ministries of Ukraine and Finland could agree on the matter.
– Reservists would be arriving in the darkest of days. Financially, it would be a piece of cake, the officer says – that is, a small sum.
According to him, increasing military training would be the most cost-effective way to help Ukrainians.
– That’s why I’m here now, when it’s a pity how poorly trained privates and non-commissioned officers are sent to the front, and they come back in a coffin, says the officer.
The attitude problem of Ukrainians makes education difficult
In training, however, the officer has come across a surprisingly difficult problem: It is really difficult to learn new doctrines in Ukraine.
– If you start telling the Ukrainians another option, the Ukrainians take it as a criticism, and immediately start defending themselves. The ability to take criticism is really bad, the officer says.
In that respect, Russia and Ukraine follow the same traditions.
– It’s a Soviet system where you just do what you’re told, he says.
The interpreter of the Ukrainian armed forces used by the officer has indeed insisted that a Finn should not be so blunt.
The hierarchical nature of the organization causes more problems. Inferior officers do not dare to suggest changes to their superiors because it would be considered criticism.
– The captains and majors tell me that the idea is good, but their pay grade is not enough to take the matter forward, the officer laments.
However, change is coming. According to the Finnish officer, young Ukrainian officers and civil servants are finally warming up to the reform of education. It also opens up better opportunities for Finland to start training on Ukrainian soil.
Finnish soldier: Training improved, and Ukraine wins the war
also met two Finnish soldiers who participated in the battles in Kyiv and asked them to evaluate the skills of the Ukrainian forces. One of them has a rather optimistic view, but the other thinks that the review presented by the Finnish officer is right.
Kenneth Grägg says that he works with three Ukrainian battalions on the eastern front in training, among other things.
In Grägg’s opinion, the criticism of Ukrainian officers’ military skills is partially justified. Last year, according to Grägg, reserve lieutenants who had attended university were so poorly trained that even the rookies knew more.
– It went astray, says Grägg, but according to him, the situation is much brighter now.
According to Grägg, the chain of command has also become more flexible. In Ukraine, private soldiers are now given more decision-making power in a combat situation than before, and the training of non-commissioned officers has improved.
According to Grägg, Ukraine’s recent losses are mainly due to the fact that there are so many Russian soldiers due to the mobilization. This was seen, for example, in January, when Russia seized the city of Soledar.
– We didn’t have enough artillery and the Russians came through en masse, Grägg says.
However, according to Grägg, Russian mobilization will not work as well in the future, because Russia’s weapons are running low.
– They can force a million men to the front, but what will they be given? An axe? Grägg asks.
According to Grägg, Western arms aid to Ukraine will change the balance of power. If Ukraine receives battle tanks, howitzers and F-16 fighters from the West, Grägg predicts that the war will end with Ukraine’s victory by Midsummer.
Finnish fighter: “It doesn’t even smell like moving under fire”
Another Finnish soldier in Ukraine does not want to appear recognizable in public, so he is called in this story Erkis. also met him at the end of January in Kyiv, and his identity is known to .
In Erki’s opinion, Ukraine cannot continue against Russia with the same Soviet military pact as before, because Russia will have more soldiers in the long run.
– The Ukrainians fight a lot of positional warfare and they have no idea of an attack, Erkki says.
According to Erki, the biggest problem in Ukraine is the lack of group leaders and group leader training, which leads to poor communication and confused actions in a combat situation.
– Ukrainians don’t even know how to protect themselves and move under fire, Erkki says. For example, soldiers just advance straight and don’t aim properly.
According to him, a lack of initiative can be seen in a combat situation, and even preparation is not effective.
– When the soldiers are in the barracks, they just lie around, even though they should be training, says Erkki.
The contrast to Erki’s own education during his military service is great.
All three Finns agree on one thing: Finnish military training is the best in the world and that is why it should now be offered to Ukraine as well.
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