ONE YEAR AGO THE 7 OCTOBER ATTACK • Anders Persson on developments in the Middle East
It has been a year since the October 7 attack when Hamas attacked southern Israel and killed 1,200 people and took around 250 hostages. The situation has since developed into a full-scale war that has led to tens of thousands of dead Israelis and Palestinians.
– What we have seen in Gaza this year is in line with what many experts predicted. It would be a very bloody war with lots of dead in Gaza and that is exactly what we have seen, says political scientist and Middle East expert Anders Persson.
The development has taken place in line with Hamas’ plan
The war between Hamas and Israel has spread to other fronts, both with fighting in Lebanon and an escalation between Israel and Iran. Anders Persson believes that the situation has developed completely in line with Hamas’ plan from the beginning, when they attacked Israel a year ago.
– Hamas’ purpose for this attack was to open up as many fronts as possible and make Israel fight on as many fronts as possible until they wore Israel down.
“No long-term solutions”
According to Persson, a clear end to the conflicts in the area is far away.
– I think that this war has all the conditions to become a 20-year war in the Middle East.
– The fact that it is escalating on all fronts indicates that it will be long-term. Also the fact that all these conflicts that we see, Gaza, Lebanon, the West Bank, Israel, Iran, all have as a common denominator – that they have no long-term solutions, says political scientist and Middle East expert Anders Persson.
All eyes are on the US presidential election
Despite the fact that a solution seems to be far away, Persson believes that many eyes are on the American presidential election and that the new president may play a major role in the conflict.
– Regardless of whether it is Harris or Trump, the next president will have these conflicts in his lap from day one with the eyes of the outside world directed at doing something to try to mitigate them.
But for now, Persson believes we will see further escalations in Gaza, Lebanon, between Israel and Iran, and no news for Israeli hostages still in Hamas’s grip, a year after the attack.
– Their chances of being released are less now because of the escalating wars in Gaza, Lebanon, Israel and Iran. At the moment, there are no serious negotiations to get rid of them. Therefore, their situation is even more complicated than before, concludes Anders Persson.