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Both are considered elderly people with questionable mental capacity. One has also been charged with crimes four times.
In a year, the United States will go to the presidential election, an event that, by all accounts, will be between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Voters are not amused.
It is usually a day of flag-waving, joy and tributes to democracy. But if the trend holds, the presidential election on November 5, 2024 will be of a different nature. The fact that the electoral duel looks like a repeat of 2020 dampens the enthusiasm of the voters.
– I will vote for an independent candidate if it is Trump against Biden, says Republican Kevin Chester, who lives in Arizona, to the television channel NBC.
Chester voted for Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020 but doesn’t want to do it again.
– Nothing will be done. He learns to sue everything and everyone.
Mental health concerns
Kevin Chester belongs to the roughly 56 percent who, in Real Clear Politics’ compilation of current polls, claim to have an unfavorable image of former President Donald Trump. Basically the same number, 55 percent, have a bad image of the sitting president, Democrat Joe Biden.
The presumptive presidential candidates thus have the worst opinion figures among the political leaders, after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, of whom a full 60 percent have a negative image.
So what is it that Americans don’t like? Matters of course come into play, but so does age. Three quarters of voters say they are worried about the mental and physical health of the soon-to-be 81-year-old Joe Biden, according to an opinion poll commissioned by NBC.
– He seems a little weak and the job is demanding, says Democrat Mary Lyon from Arizona about Biden.
The corresponding figure for 77-year-old Trump is 47 percent. At the same time, two-thirds, 62 percent, have concerns about the legal processes the Republican is facing.
Dead heat?
In a time when the United States is challenged by war, climate threats and economic turbulence, it is still these gentlemen that the choice will likely be between.
Joe Biden, by virtue of his office as sitting president, is basically unthreatened as the Democratic candidate, despite some challengers.
Donald Trump, for his part, dominates the broad Republican field. As many as 59 percent of the party’s voters want to see him as a candidate, despite the lawsuits and the fact that he ignored the party’s televised debates.
And if there were elections today, it would basically be a dead race between Biden and Trump – if the opinion polls are right.
Taps into Trump’s support
Against that backdrop, and given the complex and polarized political landscape, it’s no wonder that independent aspirant Robert F Kennedy is grabbing big headlines.
Environmental rights lawyer Kennedy is known primarily for his controversial vaccine opposition and for coming from one of the country’s political dynasties. Recently, he abandoned his staggered attempts to stymie the Democratic nomination in favor of a nonpartisan venture.
The action creates concern within both parties, but mainly the Republicans. It turns out that Kennedy nibbles the most on Trump’s support. Kennedy’s donations in October came to a significantly greater extent from former Trump voters than Biden supporters, according to a review by Politico.
Can become wave master
Add to that that Kennedy would get a whopping 13 percent support if the election were held today, according to a USA Today poll. He attracts some Democrats, but a majority of supporters say they would otherwise vote Republican.
– I support him because he doesn’t seem like a Washington type, says retiree and former Trump voter Desiree Whitney from Texas about Kennedy.
This means that Robert F Kennedy may play a wave master role in the election, like Ross Perot in 1992. The independent candidate Perot then received support that otherwise probably went to the incumbent Republican George H W Bush. It enabled Democrat Bill Clinton’s victory.
Another independent candidate to watch is progressive philosophy professor Cornel West. He is now estimated to have the support of 4 percent, votes that would otherwise have gone to Biden.
FACT Background: This is how a presidential candidate is appointed
The presidential candidates in the United States are formally chosen at the Democratic and Republican conventions, but who they will be is usually clear much earlier in the primary election process.
In 2024, the Republicans will hold their convention on July 15-18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The Democrats meet August 19-22 in Chicago, Illinois.
A few thousand delegates are sent to the convention, who are appointed at the primaries and nomination meetings held in each state earlier in the election year. The number of delegates varies with the population of the states.
Nomination meetings are also called nomination elections or trial elections (in English caucus). They are usually organized by the parties and involve members gathering locally and debating the various presidential aspirants and carrying out a form of voting. Primary elections are arranged by the states and are more like ordinary local elections, although usually with lower turnout.
When it is clear who will be the presidential candidate, he usually appoints his vice-presidential candidate.
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