BOLSANORO. At the end of the presidential campaign, Jair Bolsonaro is still behind Lula in the poll results, but the candidate is certain of being able to win the election in Brazil this Sunday, October 30.
[Mis à jour le 28 octobre 2022 à 18h38] Two possibilities present themselves to Bolsonaro in the run-up to the presidential election in Brazil. This Sunday, October 30, either a re-election for a second term or a challenge to the result and the victory of Lula. After having further widened his electoral base during the inter-round period by seducing part of the working class, the outgoing president considers his victory as a possible scenario, especially since the politician intends to continue his campaign until on the eve of the election to still try to win a few additional votes, in particular those of the abstainers and the last undecided. However, his efforts do not yet seem sufficient to catch up and get ahead of Lula according to the results of the latest polls. A few hours before the poll Bolsonaro is still between 4 to 6 points behind his opponent.
Jair Bolsonaro does not prefer to take into account opinion polls. Worse, the far-right candidate casts a shadow over polling institutes and accuses them of fraud or falsifying the results to favor his opponent. “Today everyone says that my acceptance [par le du peuple] is much larger than that of my opponent. But let’s leave the ballot boxes… Let’s leave this question to the electoral transparency commission”, he declared during an interview given on Friday, October 21. The president, however, has reason to hope since in the first round the final results were not quite those predicted by the polls. The hypothesis of a defeat of Bolsonaro is therefore a challenge remains the most likely according to estimates. So despite the step aside and the reassuring speech of the president outgoing, it seems obvious that he will not recognize the results or find fault with the counting of the votes to denounce the illegitimacy of the ballot.The speech of the outgoing president would therefore be more a strategy to soften his profile and obtain the support of other voters with the election? Most likely.
What do the poll results predict for Bolsonaro?
Since the beginning of the inter-rounds the results of the polls have been rather tight between Lula and Bolsonaro and the trend is confirmed in the latest polls published by Datafolha and Atlas this October 26. The two surveys bet on a score of 47% for the outgoing president against 53% for his rival Lula. The margin of error is evaluated between 1.5 and 2 and if it allows to leave the advantage to Lula, a surprise can still occur during the results of the presidential election.
What result can we expect for Bolsonaro against Lula?
The duel between Lula and Bolsonaro has punctuated the presidential election since the start of the campaign in Brazil. These are two juggernauts of politics but also two opposites who clash in this election. The outgoing president hopes to be re-elected for a second term despite a very difficult record to defend during which poverty and inflation have exploded due to a bad economic situation and certain policies of the far-right man. Bolsonaro’s presidential term is also marked by the devastation of a large part of the Amazon or the unprecedented spread of weapons in the countries. Still, despite his difficulties, the Liberal Party candidate can count on a solid electoral base which carried him through to the second round. Faced with Lula who benefits from the good image left after his presidential mandates (2003-2010) but also has to deal with his past and the corruption scandals which took him to prison, the match is tight.
Aware that the presidential election can be played out in little things, Bolsonaro like Lula have been incisive throughout the campaign to try to bring down the adversary and to rise as the best option. It is difficult to say with certainty who knew how to play his cards best, but a few days before the election, Bolosnaro still appears to be a few points behind in the polls and must come under attack and heavy accusations from Lula on cannibalistic behavior and tendencies. pedophiles.
Biography
Who is Jair Bolsonaro?
A soldier by profession, with the rank of artillery captain in the Army at the height of his career, Jair Bolsonaro got his hands on Brazilian politics in 1988, when he was discharged from the army, becoming municipal councilor of Rio de Janeiro under the label of the Christian Democratic Party. The politician rose through the ranks until he was elected to the highest office of the state in October 2018 and became president of the Federal Republic of Brazil on January 1, 2019, this time with the support of the Social Liberal Party. In 2022, he is a candidate for a second term supported by the Liberal Party. The Brazilian head of state is a very controversial figure and classified on the far right of the political spectrum for his remarks deemed homophobic, racist and sexist. His election as President of Brazil was like an earthquake and his four years in office were marked by decisions like thunderclaps. The mismanagement of the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil is symptomatic of the policy of Jair Bolsonaro, who has sometimes been accused of conspiracy. Jair Bolsonaro was skeptical about the seriousness of the virus and questioned the health restrictions imposed by the governors in his country, going so far as to invite Brazilians to defy confinement, assuring that “Brazil cannot stop “.
Long isolated on the Brazilian political scene, Jair Bolsonaro was from 1990 to 2019 a federal deputy from Rio de Janeiro, discreet and without influence on parliamentary politics. So much so that during the 2018 presidential election, politics had the attraction of novelty for Brazilians. Since his election, the man has been a political figure and three of his five children have followed the path. His three sons from his first marriage to Rogéria Nantes Nunes Braga are statesmen: Flavio Bolsonaro is a senator in Rio de Janeiro, Carlos Bolsonaro is a city councilor in the same city and Eduardo Bolsonaro is a federal deputy for the state of São Paulo. Jair Bolsonaro remarried twice to two evangelicals including his current wife, Michelle Reinaldo, with whom he had his only daughter, Laura.
Bolsonaro, victim of an assassination attempt
The 2018 presidential campaign was marked by the assassination attempt on Jair Bolsonaro. While giving a rally on September 6, 2018 in Juiz de Fora, the candidate was stabbed and immediately taken to hospital in critical condition. The attack had perforated the small intestine of the candidate and three surgical operations had been necessary to treat Jair Bolsonaro. The candidate was able to leave the hospital more than three weeks after the attack, on September 29, and continue the presidential campaign from his home. The attacker, Adélio Bispo de Oliveira, had been arrested and described as a former militant of the Socialism and Freedom Party and had explained that he had acted “on the order of God” for “for” political and religious reasons, and also because prejudices that Bolsonaro shows every time he talks about race, religion and women”, indicated 20 minutes at the time. The man deemed irresponsible had been interned in a federal prison with psychiatric treatment, less than a year later, on June 14, 2019.
Bolsonaro, bad defender of the Amazon
Jair Bolsonaro has also been widely criticized for his actions against the environment such as the authorization and reintroduction of several pesticides or the development of gold panning partly responsible for water pollution. His unconditional support for the agri-food industry despite the negative and oversized impact of these activities on the deforestation of the Amazon is also singled out.
What is Jair Bolsonaro’s political party?
Jair Bolsonaro has traveled from political party to political party but has always remained faithful to a very right-wing, conservative thought sometimes associated with Christian values. The President of the Federal Republic of Brazil is considered a far-right figure compared to a Latin American Donald Trump or far-right European leaders. A personal position which influenced the parties to which he joined, in particular the Social-Liberal Party (PSL), a centrist group which he joined in January 2018, with a view to being a presidential candidate, and which quickly slipped to the right then the far right. But a year later, internal quarrels with the founder of the party pushed the head of state to slam the door of the political party to found his own openly far-right party, Alliance for Brazil. Only the initiative has not taken and since November 2021 Jair Bolsonaro has been a member of the Liberal Party (PL) under which he is running for president in 2022. A conservative party which defends nationalism, liberalism and Christian democracy, the PL already shows radical characters similar to those of Jair Bolsonaro.