A few days before the first round of the legislative elections, organized on Sunday June 30, 2024, the trend in the polls puts Jordan Bardella’s RN in a position to win.
The big winner of the European elections, the National Rally, acclaimed by 31.3% of voters on June 9, now hopes to take control of the early legislative elections on Sunday June 30 and July 7. The party chaired since 2021 by Jordan Bardella had 89 deputies in the National Assembly before the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, decided to dissolve the National Assembly following the results of the European elections. Coming in first in more than 32,000 French municipalities (out of 35,000) on June 9, the far-right could secure 3 times as many seats in the future hemicycle.
In any case, this is what the polls suggest. The latest, dated June 20, attributes 34% of voting intentions to the National Rally during the first round of the legislative elections. Although it remains in the lead, the party founded by Jean-Marie Le Pen is nevertheless neck and neck with the left embodied by the Popular Front. The dynamics of the far-right, however, remain rather solid a few days before the first round of the legislative elections.
If these forecasts were confirmed at the polls on the last Sunday of June, the far-right could come out on top in a very large number of the country’s 577 constituencies. Very supported in rural areas, the party led by Marine Le Pen during the 2022 presidential elections has a strong chance of obtaining historic scores in several constituencies from June 30 and perhaps even electing a few deputies in the first round .
But the RN sees further, and if the rapprochement with some Republican figures has taken place at the margins, it is indeed the absolute majority in the National Assembly – or 289 seats – that it is targeting to be able to place the one of his own at the head of the government and thus exert all his weight on the legislative power.
On this point, the pollsters’ projections are unanimous: the RN does not seem able to win enough constituencies in the 2nd round and obtain enough deputies. Jordan Bardella should be satisfied with a relative majority without allies. Which means that the far right, without a coalition, could not form a government.