The death of Alexei Navalny on February 16 in a penal colony in the Arctic Circle took with it the greatest hopes of Russian dissidence. On social networks, many Russians share their first memories of Navalny and his activism – unforgettable for an entire “Navalny generation”, who realized that the ruling party was only a gang of “thieves and crooks”, according to the famous expression of the opponent.
“Navalny was above the rest, because for more than twenty years, he always looked for new ideas and strategies to advance the opposition, analyzes Morvan Lallouet, researcher and co-author ofAlexei Navalny. The man who defies Putin (Tallandier, 2021). His charisma, his humor and his determination to go beyond the small niche of the Russian liberal opposition distanced him from all the other opponents.” For the latter, it’s a hangover. The dismay can be read in the words of Garry Kasparov , castigating the West for having acted too late, or Mikhail Khodorkovsky, for whom Navalny’s death “is a huge loss for the Russian opposition”. Despite Yulia Navalnaïa’s speech, announcing that she will continue the fight for her late husband, morale is at half mast. Those who are languishing in prison, like Vladimir Kara-Murza and Ilia Iachine, fear suffering the same fate as their friend: dying in detention, after a vain fight for justice.
If some still had doubts, turning their eyes away from the truth is no longer possible: Putin’s regime kills, from liberal opponents to the most zealous patriots, such as Yevgeny Prigozhin [NDLR : leader du groupe de mercenaires Wagner affiliés au Kremlin, décédé dans le crash de son avion privé en août 2023]. In his criminal war in Ukraine, the head of the Kremlin has achieved such a feeling of impunity that he no longer fears anything. Neither the disapproval of the West, nor the uprisings, less and less probable, of a population anesthetized by propaganda or beaten in public when it places flowers on a sidewalk.
A regime losing legitimacy
The Kremlin criminals have a free hand, and everything encourages them to continue. The recent capture of the town of Avdiïvka, in Ukraine, breathes new life into Russian forces. A return of Donald Trump to the White House is very likely. Western support for Ukraine, although reaffirmed at the Munich conference, remains too hesitant. “What will be the consequences for this murder?” asks Svetlana Tikhanovskaïa, leader of the Belarusian opposition, whose husband has been imprisoned for almost four years. “This should be the red line.”
But like a ray of light in the dark night, the disappearance of Alexei Navalny brings back the gaping cracks of a regime losing legitimacy and a paranoid dictator. Navalny’s death is a sign that the system is afraid of “a poorly extinguished opposition cigarette, which will explode this pile of political muck”, in the words of Russian political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov.
This flame can only be rekindled in the event of Russian defeat in Ukraine, in this war which is dragging the country deeper into darkness every day. Vladimir Putin said it himself: the survival of Russia – understand: her Russia – depends on “Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine”.