A seasoned parliamentarian, with no government experience, perceived as honest and competent despite a lack of charisma. This is how we could describe Luis Montenegro, leader of a center-right coalition and winner of the Portuguese elections on Sunday March 10. The partial results give him a very narrow victory over the socialists who have been in power for eight years. But that’s not all: three months before the European elections, this election precipitated by the resignation of outgoing Prime Minister Antonio Costa, who was not seeking a new mandate, also confirms that the far right is progressing across the Old Continent, as Italian and Dutch voters had already shown.
Portugal was one of the few countries in Europe to be ruled by the left when Antonio Costa, 62, threw in the towel after being named in an influence peddling investigation at the beginning of November. While only the four seats in foreign constituencies had not yet been allocated, the center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) led by Luis Montenegro, 51, won 29.49% of the votes and 79 deputies out of a total of 230.
The Socialist Party (PS), which obtained an absolute majority in 2022 with a score of 41.4%, now comes in second place with 28.66% of the votes and 77 seats. This result therefore does not allow the winner to form an absolute majority of at least 116 elected officials alone, nor even in coalition with a small liberal party which came in fourth position with 5% of the votes and eight seats. Luis Montenegro still claimed an “unavoidable” victory in Sunday’s legislative elections, saying he wanted to govern with a “relative majority” in Parliament and reaffirming his refusal to lead the country with the support of the far right.
A divided country
The populist Chega (Enough) party led by André Ventura, 41, more than doubled its score by obtaining 18% of the vote, compared to 7.2% during the previous legislative elections in January 2022. In number of seats, the anti-system formation founded in 2019 quadrupled its representation from 12 to 48 deputies, thus strengthening its rank as the third political force in the country, following an election also marked by a sharp increase in participation. “Chega asked to become the centerpiece of the political system and achieved this objective,” welcomed André Ventura after welcoming “an absolutely historic result” and saying he was “available” to “give a stable government to Portugal ” within “a strong majority on the right”.
A result that “E” magazine, the Expresso supplement, had anticipated Friday March 8 by illustrating his article with a girl’s pastel divided into three pieces: a country which “risks ungovernability in the face of the left/right/anti-system tri-polarity”. Traditionally, Portugal was divided in two, with the Socialist Party on one side and the Social Democratic Party (PSD) on the other, the main opposition force since then. A period now over. Will Luís Montenegro make an agreement with his Chega counterpart, André Ventura? For the moment, the two protagonists have ruled out this hypothesis.
André Ventura: a meteoric rise
This new breakthrough for the far right comes as Portugal next month commemorates the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution, which ended the fascist dictatorship and 13 years of colonial wars. In his meteoric rise, this law professor and fervent Catholic, who became known as a polemicist on television sets devoted to football, was driven by a speech against corruption, immigration and minorities. Beyond the suspicions which caused the resignation of Antonio Costa, André Ventura also insisted during the campaign on the increase in immigration to Portugal, which has seen its foreign population double in the space of five years.
After the departure of Antonio Costa, the PS regrouped around Pedro Nuno Santos, a 46-year-old former minister from its left wing. “Despite the minimal difference between us and the AD, […] we did not win the elections and we will go into opposition,” he admitted. More ambiguously, he indicated that his party would not obstruct the formation of a center-right minority government, but left the threat of voting against its next budget. Despite the consolidation of public finances, growth above the European average and unemployment at its lowest, the record of the outgoing socialist government was tarnished by inflation, dysfunctions in hospitals and schools, then by a major housing crisis.
During the campaign, center-right opposition leader Luis Montenegro promised to cut taxes to boost growth, while saying he wanted to improve public services.