Who could have imagined, in December 2021, the Russian invasion of Ukraine ? A year ago, the assault on the Capitol? To counter the threats that surround us, the Ministry of the Armed Forces has been working for many years on scenarios for France’s entry into the war. Several structures – from the operations planning center to the doctrine center (CPCO) and command education center (CDEC) are even dedicated to this prospective work. For three years, the armed forces have also financed the Observatory of Future Conflicts, which brings together a research consortium on threats between now and 2040, led both by the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) and the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). The famous Red Team, made up of researchers and writers, is preparing anticipatory thoughts for the army by 2060.
Alexandra Saviana, journalist at L’Express, spent a year with these strategists responsible for imagining the most devastating combinations. She signed, this May 16, The Dark Scenarios of the French Army (Robert Laffont), a dive into the 11 catastrophic conflicts that await the French forces between now and 2030. Supported by the analyzes of 106 experts, these stories of warlike gears make us discover the “mental paths” of the great powers – l The expression comes from Antoine Bourguilleau, officer in charge at the CDEC war game unit. This work follows an eponymous report published in March 2023 in L’Express, in which scenarios had been developed according to the suggestions of our witnesses, the law of Murphy, engineer and American soldier: “Everything that is likely to go wrong will go wrong.” Russia, China, cyber, jihadism… As in the previous L’Express report, the majority of the eleven hypotheses overlap those that the armies are looking into. These are in no way forecasts, but prospective work.
Scenario 1 – DAlgerian soldiers target Toulon
Scenario 2 – Israel shells Iran, France caught in the spiral
Scenario 3: Russia invades the Baltics
That year, spring was slow to appear in Narva, Estonia. Temperatures dropped to -7°C last night. The cold keeps the 53,000 inhabitants of this medium-sized city well sheltered. It’s 3:15 in the morning. Only a group of around ten revelers scream in the darkness, veterans of a night that refuses to end. One of them lingers on the quays of the river which separates Europe from Russia. In the fog of alcohol, he contemplates the medieval fortress of Ivangorod. Just opposite, on its side, the fort of Hermann responds to it, like an inverted reflection.
[…] When the man looks at the Ivangorod Fortress again, he feels as if his stomach is falling several stories. Dozens of battalions of Red Army soldiers appeared across the river. T‐14 Armata and T‐80 tanks, production of which has been relaunched in recent years, are preparing to confront NATO troops.
This time he is fully awake. A nightmare in fast motion unfolds before his eyes. The Russian army, taking advantage of a few years of respite, rebuilt its troops. “The reconstitution time envisaged for the Russian army is four to five years, notes Camille Grand, deputy secretary general for defense investment at NATO from 2016 to 2022, now a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). We must never forget that, in the Ukrainian conflict, it is above all the land army which has been greatly reduced. Neither its air assets nor its maritime assets are too damaged. , cyber, nuclear are not at all. It is far from certain that the Russian army will be out of the game for a decade.” […]
Russian forces are advancing
On the Lithuanian side, Belarusian battalions are also getting into marching order. Russian troops are advancing rapidly in Estonia, fighting NATO forces weakened by the departure of the Americans a few months earlier. […]
In France, special editions follow one another, military and diplomatic experts parade on stage. We still want to believe in a possibility of de-escalation. Recent leaks in the American press – which described a Putin more weakened than ever – suggest a lightning and desperate action by the Kremlin. But, in Brussels, we quickly realize the obvious: Moscow, taking advantage of Washington’s indifference, has just declared war on Europe. […]
Against all expectations, favored by the element of surprise, the Russian forces are progressing. 22 Russian divisions have positioned themselves in the region over the past few days. NATO decides to apply Article 5, but the allies are horrified to see Washington hesitating, promising weapons, but refusing to confirm the immediate arrival of the American boys. The Alliance Response Force (NRF) was nonetheless mobilized: in the early morning of the invasion, NATO staff planned to deploy 13,000 men on the ground within forty-eight hours. Its divisions are heading towards the border between Lithuania and Poland to try to slow the advance of the Russians and Belarusians on their southern flank. […]
Washington intervention
On 20 Hours, in a speech made live from the Elysée, the head of state adopts a martial tone. “France must rise to the historic moment,” he said. “Our allies expect us to take our responsibilities. This is a serious time, but European unity will emerge stronger from this ordeal.” In the process, the president announced the mobilization of 15,000 men in the conflict, and the placing of the armed forces operational reserve on alert. […]
In the dead of night, the first European battalions land in Poland. Nearly 5,000 French soldiers disembarked. “Without taking into account the United States, there are already two large battalions of NATO soldiers in Estonia, and a French force of 5,000 men deployable in thirty days, delivered on site,” confirms General Michel Yakovleff. […]
While, on the sets of the news channels, the experts issue gloomy economic forecasts, the hammer blow falls: the Belarusian forces managed to break through the allied defenses and reach Riga, the capital of Latvia, in a little more than thirty‐eight hours. The fighting is raging in Estonia, but the Russian battalions are less than 50 kilometers from Tallinn. […]
Faced with this situation clearly out of control, Washington decided to intervene. On June 12, part of the American troops arrived at the port of The Hague, in the Netherlands. Four days later, the NATO counter-offensive was launched via a land and airborne operation. After about ten days, the allies managed to gradually regain ground. On June 14, Russian troops retreated and left Tallinn. Western media hail the success of an operation which “sweeps away” Russian forces exhausted by several months of fighting. On June 20, an amphibious operation carried out jointly by American, Swedish and Norwegian forces took the Belarusian armies from behind. The three forces, assisted by the English and French navies, managed to retake Riga. Helped by the United States, NATO regains its full power and retakes lost territories.
Tactical nuclear weapon
Cornered, alone in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin then decides the unthinkable. On June 23, an alarm signal sounded in Estonia, while an allied military convoy was targeted by a tactical nuclear weapon sent from Belarus. 300 deaths, civilians and soldiers, are to be deplored. The United States, wishing to avoid engaging in a nuclear escalation, did not respond directly. They nevertheless provide intelligence in support of a Franco‐British decision: to respond by targeting one of the bunkers where Vladimir Putin, who has disappeared for several days, has gone into exile. Three days later, the operation was launched while, in the Russian capital, revolt was brewing.
With Vladimir Putin’s days numbered, a palace revolution is underway in Moscow. In a few days, perhaps weeks, the Russian leader will no longer be. The war will end in Europe – at least on the Baltic front. […] A new geopolitical shift, more uncertain than ever, is facing the world.
The dark scenarios of the French army. Understand the threats that await us, by Alexandra Saviana. Robert Laffont, 240 p., €19.
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