Global warming and heat waves will cause food prices to rise even further in the years to come, according to a study published Thursday March 21 by the journal Communications Earth and Environment, published by Springer Nature.
The impact will vary depending on the seasons and regions. But rising temperatures predicted for 2035 will lead to an average increase in food prices of 1.49 percentage points per year. In the worst-case scenario, the increase will be 1.79 percentage points. The effect on headline inflation would be 0.76 and 0.91 percentage points, respectively.
Southern countries will be most affected
By comparing historical price and weather data from 121 countries between 1991 and 2020, “we found strong evidence that higher temperatures, particularly in summer and in hot regions, cause price increases in diet”, summarized one of the authors of the study, Maximilian Kotz. The researchers, from the University of Potsdam and the European Central Bank, then extrapolated this data based on predicted future climate conditions, between 2035 and 2060.
These “will likely lead to increases in food inflation and overall inflation around the world, particularly in regions that are already warmer, i.e. in the southern hemisphere,” said Maximilian Kotz. Africa and South America will be the continents most affected. In the northern hemisphere, rising temperatures will drive up prices “especially in summer”, he added.
Agriculture “particularly sensitive”
However, the researchers did not find a significant impact of global warming on the other components of household expenditure, except on electricity prices. This is quite “consistent” with studies showing that “agriculture is particularly sensitive to climate impacts”, noted Maximilian Kotz.
The authors of the study also looked more specifically at the impact of the heat wave in Europe in the summer of 2022, which likely caused food inflation to rise by 0.67 percentage points, with a greater impact important in southern Europe. “Climate change will amplify the extent of these extreme heat events, and therefore their potential impact on inflation,” underlines the study.