On April 19, Kane Tanaka, a Japanese registered in the Guinness Book of Records as the world’s oldest person, died. He is 119 years old. His birth year was 1903, one year before the Russo-Japanese War. It would not be an exaggeration to say that Mr. Tanaka has witnessed and experienced almost every event in Japan’s modern and contemporary history. His death has turned Japan’s oldest person into a 115-year-old man named Fusa Tatsumi.
According to the statistical data released by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare on the Day of the Elderly (September 15) in 2021, the number of super-aged people over 100 living in Japan was 86,510, an increase of 6060 from the previous year. The number of super-aged people in Japan has increased for 51 consecutive years.
In Japan, a separate counting of super-aged people over the age of 100 was initiated in 1963 by the Elderly Welfare Act. That year, for the first time, the Japanese government announced that the number of people over 100 years old was 153. The number of super-aged people over 100 years old exceeded 1,000 in 1981 and then exceeded 10,000 in 1998. Since then, it has shown a steady increase every year, and if this trend continues, it is estimated that the number will exceed 100,000 by 2024. By region, Shimane Prefecture, which is familiar to Koreans due to the Dokdo ordinance scandal, has the highest number of super-aged people per 100,000 people at 134.75. The number of super-aged people in Kochi, Kagoshima, Tottori, and Yamaguchi prefectures also exceeded 100 per 100,000 people.
Japan is one of the most aging societies in the world. It is classified as one of the fastest aging countries on a global scale. According to the standards of the United Nations, all countries can be defined as an aging society (over 7%), an aged society (over 14%), and a super-aged society (over 20%) depending on the proportion of the population aged 65 and over in the total population. . Japan entered an aging society in 1970, when the proportion of the population aged 65 and over recorded 7.1%. According to the population distribution data of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare for that year, out of the total population of 146.7 million, 5.16 million people aged 65 to 74 and 2.24 million people over 75 years old were recorded.
Japan entered an aging society in 1995. Of the 125.57 million people counted as Japan’s total population, 11.09 million people aged 65 to 74 and 7.17 million people over 75 years old. The proportion of the population aged 65 and over is 14.6%. Japan has entered the aging society stage only 25 years after entering the aging society. As the cause of such rapid aging, the prolongation of life expectancy due to the development of medical technology is often cited. However, if you look behind the scenes, the biggest cause is undoubtedly the low birth rate. As the number of newborns decreased, the proportion of the elderly in the total population inevitably increased.
In fact, if you look at the trend of Japan’s total fertility rate (an index indicating the average number of births that a woman of reproductive age is expected to have during her lifetime), it reached 4.32 during the first baby boom (1947-1948) right after the Pacific War. However, at the time of the second baby boom (1971-1974), the total birth rate was 2.14, which was half that of the first baby boom. Japan’s total birth rate in 1989 was 1.57, which is lower than the ‘lowest that can support the future society’ of 1.58, causing a huge social impact.
After that, the Japanese government struggled, such as strengthening the direct support system (birth congratulations, child allowance, educational expenses subsidy system, etc.) to raise the total birth rate. Some local governments have poured enormous resources into revitalizing marriage and childbirth, such as opening a ‘Konkatsu (marriage activity)’ center at the level of administrative agencies. However, Japan’s total birth rate in 2019 was only 1.36 (870,000 births). As mentioned earlier, if the birth rate does not rise, it is quite natural for the proportion of the elderly to rise.
Japan has already entered a super-aged society (more than 20% of the total population over 65 years old) in 2010. Among the total population of 128.06 million, 15.17 million people aged 65 to 74 and 14.07 million people aged 75 and over were found. As a result, those aged 65 or older accounted for 23% of the total population.
The elderly budget is increasing day by day.
This trend is getting worse and worse. In 2020, out of the total population of 125.71 million, the number of people aged 65 and over was 36.19 million. The aging rate is a whopping 28.4%. Even on a global scale, it is overwhelmingly number one. According to ‘Global Note’, an international statistics website, 5-8 percentage points higher than major advanced countries such as Italy (23.3%), Portugal (22.8%), Germany (21.7%), Germany (21.7%), and France (20.8%). an exceedingly high number.
The problem is that it seems extremely difficult to block this trend of super-aging Japan. The Japanese government also seems to actually admit this. The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare predicts that Japan’s population aged 65 and over will exceed 30% in 2025 and then reach 33.3% in 2036.
Significant problems related to the super-aged society are occurring. In fact, it is not an exaggeration to say that almost all of Japan’s national fiscal problems, including the world’s most serious national debt ratio, stem from a super-aged society. Looking at the details of the Japanese government’s general accounting budget in 2020, ‘social security-related expenses’ amounted to 35.86 trillion yen (34.9%) of the total budget of 10,0658 billion yen. Looking at the details of social security related expenses, the so-called ‘three major benefit items for the elderly’ occupy a significant portion. These include pension benefits of 12,523.2 billion yen (up 3.9% from the previous year), medical benefits of 12,154.6 billion yen (up 2.5%), and long-term care (nursing care) benefits of 3,383.8 billion yen (up 5.4%). Combined, the three main benefits for the elderly amount to 286 trillion yen.
On the other hand, the low birth control cost is only 3.387 trillion yen. However, this is an increase of 28.9% compared to the previous year. Considering the high increase rate, the Japanese government appears to be interested in the low birth rate, but the amount itself is absurdly small compared to the elderly-related budget. In addition, social welfare expenses such as livelihood assistance, which are considered items for working people, are 4.2 trillion yen (0.5% increase from the previous year), and employment and labor accident countermeasures expenses are 39.5 billion yen (1.8% increase). The budget for the elderly is incomparably small, and the rate of increase is also insignificant.
The Japanese government’s budgeting style is also applied to the special accounting appropriation under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. While the special account for pensions for the elderly amounted to 70,289.9 billion yen, the special account for labor insurance provided to working people was only 4.7.2 trillion yen.
This is not to criticize the Japanese government’s budgeting style. Older people are only getting their pension premiums, which they have paid for for decades, on a legitimate basis. The Japanese government also supports the elderly in accordance with the legally stipulated pension system provisions and the Japanese Constitution (Chapter 3, Article 13, Respect for Individuals and Public Welfare).
Paradoxically, this is the problem. no one has done anything wrong However, as a result, the social balance was disrupted. It is difficult to say that it is desirable that the majority of the social security budget is concentrated excessively on the elderly, rather than the children who should bear the burden of the future society and the labor force supporting today’s society.
Origin of ‘The Lost 30 Years’
Japan’s social security items themselves have been continuously increasing over the past 30 years. The total birth rate (1.57) appeared to be below 1.58, which seems to have increased since around 1989, when it had a social shock. The entry into an aged society in 1995 also had a significant impact on the formation of the country’s social security system. However, as the social security system is too old-fashioned and the imbalance between tax revenue and expenditure is getting worse, the Japanese government is being forced to issue more than 20 trillion yen of deficit government bonds every year. Deficit government bonds have been issued every year since 1994. It is almost the same time as entering an aging society. However, the Japanese government could not print deficit bonds indefinitely either. In the end, a consumption tax (3%) system was introduced to make up for the lack of tax revenue, and has been raised several times since then (5%, 8%, now 10%). 1989, when the consumption tax system was first introduced, was the year of the ‘total birth rate of 1.57 shock’. The consumption tax hike, introduced to boost tax revenue, eventually contracted the economy, and has been cited as one of the main reasons that subsequently plunged the Japanese economy into a chronic deflationary situation. Going back to the stagnation of the Japanese economy and society, which has been called the ‘lost 30 years’, the aging society and the low birthrate are surely the main keywords.
Through this series, I have been constantly criticizing Japanese society and politics for the past year. Occasionally, I meet people who view Japan’s future so negatively and ask why they criticize it so much. Each time, the answer is ‘because the present Japan has neither the ability nor the will to solve the super-aged society’. If this problem is not resolved, Japan will inevitably decline.
But the same question should be asked in Korea. It’s good to enjoy Asia’s best democracy, the global K craze, but is there any serious and fundamental discussion about the low birthrate and aging society, which may determine the existence of Korean society itself? Japan neglected this issue in the form of ‘Well, it will work out’, and then it became a mess. Korea, which is aging less than Japan, but is experiencing a low birth rate much faster, should also consider this problem properly.
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