After months of fighting, the Ukrainian army finally withdrew from the town of Avdiivka in the east of the country. “ A fair decision » to “save as many lives as possible”, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared on Saturday February 17 from the podium of the Munich Security Conference. What are the consequences for Ukraine and for Russia in this war which has lasted for two years now? Explanations from General Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of the Revue Défense nationale.
3 mins
RFI: The Ukrainian army had no choice but to withdraw from Avdiivka?
Jérôme Pellistrandi: Staying had no military interest. Because the Russian pressure was extremely important. The city is almost destroyed, 34,000 inhabitants before the war and there are barely 900 inhabitants who are holed up in the basements. Militarily, it was therefore preferable to withdraw a few kilometers back, even if it meant effectively leaving the city in the hands of the Russians and in some way giving a Pyrrhic victory to Vladimir Putin. The Ukrainian army managed to delay for many months since the Battle of Avdiïvka began in October last year. This allowed the Russian forces to be worn down enormously, but indeed, staying there would have meant losses. Without having a real gain on the tactical level. So, the new chief of staff of the Ukrainian army who has just been appointed ultimately made the most reasonable decision in military terms. It is a tactical withdrawal which does not mean that the Russians have achieved a masterful victory.
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Is this a primarily symbolic victory for Russia?
Yes, because the Russians are actually going to conquer a bunch of ruins. They had already tried in 2014 to capture the city, but failed. This tactical withdrawal allows them to plant the flag in a completely destroyed city center and effectively serve Putinian propaganda. But propaganda which ultimately will not have much impact outside of course Russian public opinion, which we know is conditioned by Kremlin propaganda. The seizure of Avdiivka after months of fighting also means that the Russian army has little capacity to exploit this advantage. That is to say that on a continuous front, where Russian artillery is certainly more powerful than Ukrainian artillery, the Kremlin does not have the means to relaunch, at least for the weeks to come, an offensive major, as he did almost three years ago.
Can the withdrawal from Avdiïvka help Volodymyr Zelensky gain more support from his Western allies?
Yes, and it is no coincidence that Volodymyr Zelensky finds himself today at the Munich security conference, this extremely important meeting on the strategic level where many Western leaders meet. And he needs to have more ammo. This is why yesterday he signed a bilateral security agreement with France. Because he needs it for the weeks and months to come in order to hold out on the front line and while waiting for a possible change on the ground. But for the moment, the most important thing is to hold out over the long term against Russia.
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