TOGETHER. For the Together (ENS) coalition around Emmanuel Macron, the majority is not certain after the legislative elections. So, some executives attack their main opponent: the Nupes.
Look for a legislative result near you
“We are at the time of choices. The great choices are never made by abstention. Neither abstention nor confusion but clarification.” It was in his costume as President of the Republic, but with a semblance of a warlord’s cap, that Emmanuel Macron descended into the arena of the 2e turn of the legislative elections, Tuesday June 14, 2022. Before flying to Eastern Europe (Romania and Moldova), the Head of State urged voters to “endow the country with a solid majority. “
A speech on the tarmac of Orly airport which hopes to find a sufficiently important echo while LREM and its allied parties (MoDem, Horizons, Agir), united around the coalition Together (ENS), are not certain to obtain a majority of deputies in the National Assembly. Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, boss of Horizons, also spoke in the columns of Figaro, this Tuesday, to recall that, despite the tensions that may exist between the former tenant of Matignon and the Head of State, “my only objective today is to ensure the country a stable majority”, fearing that the absence of a parliamentary group with at least 289 deputies would lead to “political disorder which would add to the instability and dangers of today’s world.” Such a scenario on a “madness” in his eyes. “I think the French do not want an ungovernable France” added the mayor of Le Havre, pointing to the Nupes (New popular ecological and social union, the union of the left).
LREM executives attack Nupes and its program
Edouard Philippe, like Emmanuel Macron before him, is part of the speech held for several days by the main figures of Together, the coalition (LREM, MoDem, Horizons, Agir) for the presidential majority: to strangle the political project of Nupes . A program made of prohibitions and taxation which would place France in an impossible economic situation according to the representatives of the Head of State. La Nupes is “anarchy, disorder and submission” even affirmed, without flinching, Amélie de Montchalin, Minister for Ecological Transition and Territorial Cohesion, in difficulty in her constituency of Essonne for the 2e round, facing a candidate from the union of the left.
For his part, Bruno Le Maire, Minister of the Economy, asked the representatives of the union of the left “to assume their program which will lead to emptying the coffers of the State. They would do better to assume their retirement program at age 60, which translates into lower pensions or lower tax contributions. Between LREM and Nupes, it will be open warfare until Friday evening, the end date of the campaign between the two towers. Until then, the pro-Macron will “let go of the blows” was entrusted to France info.
But if in April, the suspense was minimal on the outcome of the vote, this week between the two rounds of the legislative elections is, this time, classified as high risk by LREM. It must be said that the high score of the left, which Together will challenge in 276 constituencies, according to the count of Le Monde, could put the presidential coalition in the National Assembly in difficulty. Indeed, if the Macronists (or relatives) will be present in the 2nd round in 417 constituencies, the Nupes will also be present in 380 territories. And the projections of the polling institutes do not give La République en Marche and its allied parties the guarantee of winning the majority at the Bourbon Palace. Indeed, according to Ipsos-Sopra Steria, Ensemble would only win 255 to 295 seats. The majority is 289, while the Nupes could obtain between 155 and 190. Suffice to say that the days to come are going to be tense for an Emmanuel Macron and an Elisabeth Borne who will have to, unlike the entre- two rounds of April, campaigning… on the right this time, the main reservoir of votes in favor of the presidential camp, when he was on the left before April 24.
Did Emmanuel Macron’s candidates come out on top in the first round of the legislative elections? The debate has been raging since the announcement of the final results, Sunday June 12, 2022. According to the Ministry of the Interior, the Together coalition (LREM, MoDem, Horizons, Agir) won the 1st round of the legislative elections, Sunday June 12, with 25.75% of the votes cast, i.e. 5,857,561 votes cast.
However, advantage is given to the Nupes according to the data of the World (26.11% against 25.88%). A difference in voice which is explained by a labeling of the candidates different operated by the newspaper compared to that carried out by the administration. Be that as it may, the two political currents are neck and neck. Never had a post-presidential legislative election been so close. And never had a president seen his side be in second position. Anyway, the candidates supporting Emmanuel Macron’s presidential project will be present in 417 constituencies in the 2nd round.
While polling institutes had predicted a neck and neck match between Ensemble and Nupes, the results of the 1st round did not contradict the figures put forward. As for the 2nd round, the projections in number of seats obtained by Emmanuel Macron’s camp are not flattering for the President of the Republic. The latter is indeed uncertain of obtaining a majority of deputies in the National Assembly, according to an Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey which only credits the Macronists with 255 to 295 seats, knowing that the majority at the Bourbon Palace is 289 seats. Together will he manage to afford an absolute majority?
As in 2017, Emmanuel Macron has forged an alliance in order to obtain the majority in the legislative elections. However, the content of the coalition set up in 2022 is very different from that of five years ago. By a simple agreement with the MoDem of François Bayrou, the President of the Republic moved to a confederation bringing together six political parties in addition to the party he founded in 2016. Gathered under the banner “Together” – which is not not a party-, LREM, the MoDem, Agir (Franck Riester), Horizons (Edouard Philippe), Territory of progress (Olivier Dussopt), In Common (party of Barbara Pompili chaired by Philippe Hardouin) and the Radical Party (Laurent Hénart) have sealed a pact of support for Emmanuel Macron, leading negotiations for the distribution of constituencies. Thus, according to the agreement reached, 400 nominations were reserved for LREM, between 101 and 110 for the MoDem, as well as 58 for Horizons, the other formations each winning less than 10 constituencies.
A coalition which is however not without risk, worries one in Macronie. In particular vis-à-vis Edouard Philippe. If the former Prime Minister has always shown his loyalty to the Head of State, his political weight, but also his sympathy side (favorite political personality of the French), grant him the status of both ally and dissident of weight. in case of disagreement. Because if Emmanuel Macron does not obtain the majority (289 seats) with the only LREM candidates and it is the deputies stamped Horizons who allow him, the political force of his ex-tenant of Matignon will only be increased tenfold, him who can then brandish the threat of not voting in favor of a text emanating from the government or the parliamentary majority. In 2017, LREM had won 314 seats, ending however with 268 deputies after several splits and, therefore, without an absolute majority on its own.
Did La République en Marche really become “Renaissance”?
In recent days, the news of the change of identity of La République en Marche has circulated a lot. After being called En Marche when it was founded six years ago, then LREM once Emmanuel Macron in power, the political formation had to change its name to be called “Renaissance”. The announcement was made by Stanislas Guerini, Thursday, May 5, 2022, during a press conference at party headquarters. “It is indeed a change in nature and name that we are initiating. It is a refoundation of LREM to build a presidential party which will be called Renaissance”, he explained. Exit LREM, make way for Renaissance? Not quite.
This modification is not definitive. Above all, the announcement could be premature. This is what explains Playbook, citing an inside party source. The majority would be visibly “surprised” to have learned of this announcement of the name change of the main party in the ruling coalition. This same term “Renaissance”, already used as the name for the LREM list in the 2019 European elections, should in fact be used for a “refoundation process” to merge LREM into a larger whole. This union which “will absorb the small parties”, according to the source of Playbook, should also include “Agir” and “Territories of progress”, small formations on the same political line as LREM. A hypothesis that Stanislas Guérini seemed to confirm during his visit to RTL on May 6: “We have decided to launch the creation of a new political party, which will be called Renaissance, it is not done yet, but which will bring together (…) political parties, this is the proposal that we we are going to do to our partners, I am thinking of Agir, of Territories of progress (…)”. All with the aim of “creating a broader political party”, he explained. The transition from LREM to Renaissance is therefore not for now.