RECONFINATION. Faced with the Covid-19 epidemic which is sweeping through hospitals in France, the government assures that “all options are on the table”. While a new Health Defense Council was held on Monday, December 27, the possibility of new confinement in France resurfaces …
Confinera, will not confine? The question is valid. It will certainly have been discussed during the new Health Defense Council which was held on Monday, December 27. The option if it seems ruled out at this stage can still be considered in the coming weeks, as the coronavirus epidemic seems to be out of control. This Christmas weekend, the symbolic bar of 100,000 new contaminations per day was crossed. The executive recalls it all the time: “all the options are on the table”. “Should we go further and put in place traffic restrictions in this particular period? These are questions that we ask ourselves every week. Everything is on the table”, Olivier Véran launched on BFMTV on Wednesday 22nd December. The Minister of Solidarity and Health preferred not to exclude any hypothesis.
The shadow of even partial re-containment hangs over as epidemiologists worry about the rapid spread of the Omicron variant. According to all projections, the variant is responsible for a 6th wave already underway while the 5th had not yet fallen and should strengthen the coronavirus epidemic in France again in January. A situation that could result in a wave of new cases of care in healthcare establishments in the coming weeks. Measures have already been taken: closure of nightclubs, ban on alcohol consumption and on public gatherings on December 31, cancellation of all public events on New Year’s Eve. But none has so far visibly slowed the wave of contamination but also the increase in hospitalizations now clearly visible in the Covid figures.
Why a new confinement in France is possible
If the government must impose a new confinement in France, in 2022, it will do so on a scientific basis, with the certainty that no alternative will be sufficient to protect the French. The executive therefore relies on these objective criteria, starting with the indicators making it possible to monitor the evolution of the coronavirus epidemic. The latest reports are also bad: the average of new daily cases over 7 days has exceeded the bar of 54,000.
Emmanuel Macron and Jean Castex have also made it known, on several occasions, that the restrictions on freedom should above all be taken in light of the operating capacities of our care system. And caregivers are already very busy and in a state of significant fatigue. Recent figures on the Covid-19 epidemic make it possible to anticipate hospital pressure which will still be on the rise, contained for the time being thanks to vaccination.
But keeping hospitals safe will depend on the evolution of the number of contaminations. The real risk, now, is therefore called Omicron, as indicated by the government. The latest studies have confirmed the extremely contagious nature of this strain of the coronavirus, it is transmitted in a much more significant way than the previous variants. And alas, the Omicron variant partly escapes the protection conferred by the vaccine according to a recent study : it would only be 30% for an individual having benefited from a two-dose vaccination and of the order of 70% for a triple vaccinated. It is therefore likely that the number of hospitalizations and serious cases will reach an alarming level requiring new braking measures.
It should be borne in mind, despite everything, that a drastic deprivation of travel would be the culmination of a disaster scenario. Before any confinement, considered as a last resort, the government, as it has done in the past, will very likely opt for less drastic restrictive measures, such as a curfew or targeted closures of businesses and activities. deemed not to be “essential”. It is likely that the government will proceed step by step with a principle of reality and fairness in mind: if it is a question of breaking the epidemic dynamic, it is necessary to make sure to reduce social interactions and prevent people from meeting. in large numbers in closed places where wearing a mask is inherently difficult, such as restaurants.
The Scientific Council has already alerted public opinion in a notice, published on December 16. “The hospital which will experience very difficult times from Christmas onwards and during the month of January 2022. […] The 6th wave due to the Omicron variant will settle quickly and continue without real respite the 5th wave linked to the Delta variant. This situation could put great strain on the healthcare system from mid-January for a period of several weeks “, adding that it was necessary to be more coercive:” In view of the acceleration of the epidemic, and the risks associated with end-of-year festive activities, it must be possible for the authorities to take significant restrictive measures on the occasion of New Year’s Eve (including, where applicable, in the form of limiting collective activities or cover- lights), with the possibility of a territorial variation “, we can read.
For his part, the President of the Scientific Council, Jean-François Delfraissy estimated from the beginning of December that containment remains in “the toolbox” to stop the 5th and 6th wave. At RMC’s microphone, he clarified his thoughts: “It remains the terminal tool, a little barbaric that we were forced to use at the beginning.” And to add: “Everything is done at the level of all the authorities and on the part of the scientists as well, to avoid confinement”.
Can we confine the unvaccinated in France?
According to the figures, new infections and hospitalizations mainly affect people over 60 and unvaccinated people. This age group represents more than 75% of people hospitalized after contracting Covid-19 and more than half of patients treated in critical care. This is what prompted Emmanuel Macron to make the third dose of vaccine mandatory on pain of losing the health pass, within six months and five weeks after obtaining it.
The establishment in France of confinement only to the unvaccinated would encounter various legal obstacles. First, the country is no longer under the state of health emergency, the first condition for setting up containment or a curfew. Thus, it would first be necessary for Emmanuel Macron to decree a return to a state of health emergency and for Parliament to validate it. Moreover, even if this statute would be re-established, it does not grant all the rights. Specialist in constitutional law, Jean-Philippe Derosier had specified to BFM TV in November: “I do not think that we can take differentiated measures according to the vaccination status, because the only differentiation that allows the state of emergency health is territorial. ” It is for this reason that confinement of the elderly has never been established.
Even if François Saint-Bonnet, professor at the University Panthéon-Assas and specialist in the law of fundamental freedoms, estimated in Le Figaro that “if precise and objective epidemiological data are provided, I do not see what could stand in the way “and that” as soon as medical recommendations will have perfectly identified that the unvaccinated pose more risk at the collective level than the others, nothing will prevent the conformity with the Constitution “, the confinement of the unvaccinated people in France does not therefore should not be set up. All the more so a few months before the presidential election, in a context of major tensions that the country is already experiencing.