a resounding coup for China

With our correspondent in the United States, Guillaume Naudin

The reestablishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, under the aegis of China, has aroused surprise, particularly in the United States, where there is some restraint. Minimum service, on the side of the Biden administration.

At the State Department, we do not react, even by press release. The only direct reaction comes from the communications coordinator for national security issues. John Kirby explains that Washington supports all efforts to reduce tension in the Middle East, and in particular to end the war in Yemen.

He also claims that even though his country was not involved in the negotiations, it was kept informed every step of the way by the Saudi side. But is cautious about Iran’s willingness to meet its obligations, pointing out that in American experience, the Islamic Republic does not always honor its word.

On the other hand, this agreement having been concluded under the aegis of China, seen as a systemic rival in Washington, Mr. Kirby refutes the idea of ​​an American withdrawal from the region, which Beijing would take advantage of to extend its influence.

Also asked about the agreement, Joe Biden does not comment directly. He prefers to explain that anything that could ease tensions between Israel and its Arab neighbors would be a good thing. The Jewish state would like to establish diplomatic relations with Riyadh. But the Saudi Kingdom has obviously chosen to do so first with Iran, a determined adversary of Israel and the United States.

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Seen from Israel, a real slap

With our correspondent in Jerusalem, Michael Paul

This new situation is a real slap in the face for Washington and Israel, say the Israeli media. Bad news, say some commentators.

Opposition and majority reject each other’s responsibility. A senior Israeli political source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told a briefing in Rome, where Binyamin Netanyahu is currently, that the previous government is responsible.

Nonsense, retorts Yaïr Lapid, the leader of the opposition. In a press release, he specifies that everything stopped with the establishment of this extremist coalition in Israel, and when the Saudis understood that Mr. Netanyahu was now a weak politician, who no longer had any influence on Americans.

” The world keeps spinning while we’re busy here with power struggles and clashes “Says Yuli-Yoel Edelstein, deputy of Likud, the party of the head of government.

And for the left-wing daily Ha’aretzit is the end of an Israeli dream, the enlargement of the Abraham Accords, in other words the hope of creating a front with Arab countries to counter Iran.

The way is now open, continues the newspaper, to the reactivation of talks with Tehran with a view to an agreement on its nuclear program.

►On the same subject : Iranian nuclear: Tehran will reconnect surveillance cameras

Thaw hailed by Gulf countries

With our correspondent in Dubai, Nicolas Keraudren

It’s a resounding deal in the Middle East. Firstly because the two best enemies of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia and Iran, officially decide to renew their relations, but also because China, where this agreement was signed, plays a new diplomatic role beyond economic interests.

In the press release published on Friday, the official Saudi press agency did not fail to emphasize from the outset “ the noble initiative of His Excellency President Xi Jinping “.

Does this mean that China will replace American influence in this region of the world? Nothing is less sure. But this formulation is a clear message addressed to Washington, the historic ally of Riyadh, with whom relations have been strained for some time, to say the least.

In any case, in the Gulf, the news was welcomed by Saudi Arabia’s neighbors and partners. At the head of which is the Sultanate of Oman which, for three years, has been a key intermediary between the two countries. And also by the United Arab Emirates, which already sent its ambassador back to Tehran last summer in the hope of easing regional tensions.

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Two questions about warming up relations

With this rapprochement, Beijing therefore signs a diplomatic coup that the United States is forced to observe as spectators. This is how the analysis Héloïse Fayet, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri).

” It shows that the United States has a less and less important role to play in the Middle East, she explains, but it may be a dynamic that they chose themselves. We remember that in 2021, there were announcements of resizing the American posture in the Middle East, and that even if there are still several tens of thousands of American soldiers, we know that the impact and the he political, diplomatic and strategic influence that the United States can have is much reduced. »

Relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia have been complicated, especially since Joe Biden came to power. We remember his trip to Saudi Arabia, which was not successful. Relations between the United States and Iran, let’s not even talk about it. And so, effectively, the United States did not even appear as a potential partner, a potential mediator. He was not expected to play a role in the mediations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. On the other hand, the very strong position taken by China is perhaps a little more surprising.

Iranians and Saudis have an interest in this rapprochement, believes the Ifri researcher: ” Iran and Saudi Arabia are the two biggest powers in the Middle East, which have often divergent interests, which can be presented as a competition to dominate the Middle East religiously, militarily, politically, but it is obviously always more reassuring, for regional stability, that the two countries exchange. »

So there, the main advantage for both countries is a much lower risk of escalation, whether military or political. From the specific side of Saudi Arabia, it can be expected that Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen against the Houthis, who are partially supported by Iran, will be easier if Iran ever reduces its support for the Houthis. And then, on the Iranian side, it allows you to really have a breathing valve while Iran is increasingly cornered and isolated on the international scene. So there you have it, a little respite for Iran.