Will the Barnier government survive the winter? The presentation of the budget, which does not suit a majority of deputies, could put an end to his experience at Matignon.
Michel Barnier could well return to the ski slopes of Savoie sooner than expected. The Prime Minister, who regularly tells the media that he accepted his appointment without harboring any personal ambition, could give up his apron before the end of the year. For what ? Because the adoption of the 2025 budget, on which he has been actively working with his government since his arrival at Matignon, does not find consensus among parliamentarians.
It is now very clear: Marine Le Pen is now placing herself in the perspective of government censorship over the presentation of the budget. The president of the RN deputies, interviewed on RTL on November 20, had posed imperatives to Michel Barnier, demanding in a rather vague manner that the “purchasing power of the French be preserved”. This Monday, November 25, the noose is tightening. Marine Le Pen spoke with the head of government in the morning and she does not seem to have obtained any guarantees: “Michel Barnier appeared to me at the same time to be courteous and firm in his positions. I repeated the red lines of the RN”, she said, considering as very probable the hypothesis that the RN would vote on the motion of censure in the event of the use of 49.3. “We will see if today’s remarks catch on, but nothing is less certain,” she said.
The threat is now concrete, especially since the position of all the NFP parties – including the PS – is unanimous: with a motion voted by the RN, the Assembly is arithmetically able to bring down Michel Barnier.
The president of the RN deputies now knows she is at the center of the game. But her demands are very numerous: “Tapping businesses and retirees is unacceptable, […] the increase of 6 billion that he is planning on the price of electricity is unacceptable for us”, she said. And his demands can give the government a cold sweat: the slightest impact on the power of purchase by the French would be considered a red line Taking into account the 40 billion in savings – including measures on health reimbursements – and the some 20 billion in taxes presented by the Bercy ministers, there seems to be no doubt. that the power purchasing power of the French will be reached. “It’s a red line. And if this red line is indeed crossed, well we will vote for censorship,” insisted Marine Le Pen.
Mr. Barnier confirmed in mid-November in the columns of Ouest-France that he would “probably” hold his government accountable by having recourse to article 49.3 of the Constitution, which would allow adoption of the budget without a vote in Parliament. “The problem is not that of 49.3. The problem is what will be in the budget. Will Mr Barnier respect the commitment he made to ensure that the groups “Can the opposition recognize elements in its budget that seem essential to them?” asked Marine Le Pen on November 20.
What victory for Marine Le Pen?
Can the Prime Minister still convince Marine Le Pen? To do this, it would be necessary to offer her pledges and some measures that she could present as a political victory. “He is spoiled for choice,” says at Politico political support from Michel Banier, who evokes the “very reasonable and quantified” counter-budget of the RN. According to information from BFMTV, the far right will decide during the budget vote in the Joint Committee (CMP), which will try to bring together deputies and senators after December 12.
The fact remains that Marine Le Pen can decide on the political future of the tenant of Matignon, but also on the way in which the next chapters of the political soap opera will be written. Michel Barnier’s ministers now have their eyes glued to the clock: it is likely that the Prime Minister will put an end to the debate, anticipating a blockage, by using article 49.3, undoubtedly at the end of the discussions in the CMP. And then he will no longer have control.
If the RN causes the fall of the government, it will most likely satisfy many voters and activists of its party, many of whom do not understand the RN’s tacit support for Michel Barnier. The political crisis caused could also serve the interests of Marine Le Pen, who would change political priorities at a time when her conviction for embezzlement of public funds is expected at the beginning of January.