Will the Barnier government survive the winter? The various opposition parties seem increasingly determined to vote for a motion of censure on the budget.
Michel Barnier could well return to the ski slopes of Savoie sooner than expected. The Prime Minister, who regularly tells the media that he accepted his appointment without harboring any personal ambition, could give up his apron before the end of the year. For what ? Because the adoption of the 2025 budget, on which he has been actively working with his government since his arrival at Matignon, does not find consensus among parliamentarians. It is even now very clear: Marine Le Pen announced this Wednesday, November 20, at the microphone of RTL, that she will vote, with the left, a motion of censure against the government of Michel Barnier “if the purchasing power of Frenchman is an amputee. The threat is now concrete, even if we will have to wait for the position of all the NFP parties – including the PS – to arithmetically ensure that the Assembly will bring down Michel Barnier.
The president of the RN deputies until then kept a cautious distance on the subject and remained evasive. But now the ultimatum is on the table. “Tapping businesses and retirees is unacceptable, […] the increase of 6 billion that he envisages on the price of electricity is unacceptable for us”, she declared. But it is above all what she describes as a “red line” which can give rise to sweating cold in the government: an impact on the purchasing power of the French Taking into account the 40 billion in savings – including measures on health reimbursements – and the some 20 billion in taxes presented by the Bercy ministers, it does not. there seems to be no doubt that the purchasing power of the French will be reached. “It’s a red line. And if this red line is indeed crossed, well we will vote for censorship,” insisted Marine Le Pen.
Mr. Barnier confirmed last Thursday in the columns of Ouest-France that he would “probably” hold his government accountable by having recourse to article 49.3 of the Constitution, which would allow adoption of the budget without a vote in Parliament. “The problem is not that of 49.3. The problem is what will be in the budget. Will Mr Barnier respect the commitment he made to ensure that the groups Can the opposition recognize elements in its budget that seem essential to them?” asked Marine Le Pen, who added: “We have not been heard or listened to. The proof is that the Prime Minister is inviting me. next Monday.”
What victory for Marine Le Pen?
Can the Prime Minister still convince Marine Le Pen, who will therefore be received at Matignon, to change her mind? To do this, it would be necessary to offer her pledges and some measures that she could present as a political victory. “He is spoiled for choice,” says at Politico political support from Michel Banier, who evokes the “very reasonable and quantified” counter-budget of the RN.
The fact remains that Marine Le Pen can decide on the political future of the tenant of Matignon, but also on the way in which the next chapters of the political soap opera will be written. If the RN causes the fall of the government, it will most likely satisfy many voters and activists of its party, many of whom do not understand the RN’s tacit support for Michel Barnier. The political crisis caused could also serve the interests of Marine Le Pen, who would place herself at the center of the game at a time when her conviction for embezzlement of public funds is expected at the beginning of January.
Michel Barnier’s ministers now have their eyes glued to the clock: it is likely that the Prime Minister will end the debate, anticipating a blockage, by using article 49.3, undoubtedly at the end of the Senate’s discussions on the budget, or even after the senators’ vote, scheduled for December 12. And then he will no longer have control.