After the suspension of Nikki Haley’s campaign, the American presidential election of November 2024 will, once again, pit Joe Biden against Donald Trump. The two candidates agree on almost nothing. Climate issues are no exception. A study shows, by anticipating, what American greenhouse gas emissions will be depending on the victory of one or the other. And if Trump wins, the objective of limiting warming to +1.5°C will be buried.
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It’s a necessarily risky exercise, but nevertheless enlightening. What will be the effects on the climate of a new mandate of Joe Biden or Donald Trumpif the latter returned to the White House?
The answer lies in one number: a Trump presidency would send 4 billion tons more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than a Biden presidency. This is the equivalent of the emissions of the European Union and Japan taken together. Enough to killParis agreementin short.
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Obviously, this figure depends on a multitude of variables such as economic growth or the international context. But the order of magnitude is there. To obtain it, it was necessary to analyze the projects of the two candidates, but also the effectiveness of the measures already taken by Joe Biden. Donald Trump has announced that he wants to repeal most of them, notably theInflation Reduction Act (IRA)the program put in place to contain inflation while investing in green energy.
If he returns for another term as president, will Donald Trump succeed? And in what proportion? Only time will tell. But this project and the other measures of his program already allow the authors of this work to affirm that if the Republican candidate applies what he announces today, the objective of limiting global warming to +1.5°C is to be forgotten.
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