An unprecedented madness is going on in Romania.
How can an almost unknown candidate win the first round of the presidential election?
The EU was also worried about the victory of Călin Georgescu, who makes statements in favor of Russia.
In this article, we present four possible explanations for the mystery that is currently the talk of Europe.
Explanation 1: Tiktok decided the election
What is exceptional about Georgescu’s Tiktok account is the very fast and strong growth in popularity.
Before the elections, polls showed Georgescu’s support at best around eight percent. On election day, the number was 23. It guaranteed the unknown candidate a first-round victory.
One explanation is Georgescu’s rapid and skyrocketing Tiktok popularity.
A week before the election, one of his Tiktok videos garnered millions of views. The following videos also became quite popular.
Just two days before the election, the number of shares, likes and comments on Georgescu’s videos skyrocketed.
It has raised suspicions that the account’s popularity was boosted by dishonest means. It could be, for example, that someone has bought a bot army. Machine bots have liked and shared Georgescu’s videos.
– No one really becomes a Tiktok star overnight with such a volume, says the PhD researcher at the University of Tampere Esko Nieminen.
Georgescu’s surprising visibility in Romania was also reflected in how his name was searched for online.
Nieminen cannot find an explanation for himself in the videos. They are populist mainstream in style: Most have a short and reduced message and dramatic background music
– There is no such wow factor that would make these videos wonderful on any level, says Nieminen.
The Romanian administration has decided to freeze Tiktok at least until the second round of the presidential election. Romania’s Supreme Court is considering annulling the entire election result.
The EU was also interested in the case.
The European Commission demanded that Tiktok respond to accusations of algae-based moderation and election influence.
The Guardian newspaper in a statement received, Tiktok called the accusations misleading and inaccurate.
Explanation 2: Georgescu mobilized voters not only on Tiktok but also elsewhere
According to the researcher, Russia could very well have influenced the election campaign. However, there is not enough evidence for its active role so far.
Investigator Keith Kiely is involved in clearing up doubts about Russia’s involvement in the Romanian election result. He considers external influence “very, very possible”.
According to him, however, there is not enough evidence of coordinated Russian activity in the Romanian presidential elections so far.
Kiely works for a fact-checking organization focused on Bulgaria and Romania.
He has been involved in writing a report for the EU Commission on the impact of social media on the Romanian election results.
According to Kiely, a large number of fake profiles promoting political content appeared on Romanian Tiktok right before the election day.
However, it is wrong for him to claim that Tiktok alone decided the election.
– Tiktok has its problems. Still, the main thing to focus on is the widespread spread of anti-EU, anti-NATO, nationalist and pro-Russia messages, says Kiely.
Especially fake Tiktok popularity does not automatically turn into election day votes.
Georgescu’s success may come from other social media as well.
– Our group is currently looking for connections between, for example, different Telegram groups and Georgescu’s campaign during the election week, says Kiely.
Explanation 3: Georgescu mobilized young people who usually don’t vote
Georgescu managed to reach at least the young people in the elections. Almost a third of his voters were under 25 years old.
According to the Romanian media about 31 percent of the voters in Georgescu were between the ages of 18 and 24.
It is often difficult to reach young people to answer polls, so the popularity of young people could therefore come as a surprise on election day.
Docent of political history working at the Aleksanteri Institute at the University of Helsinki Katalin Miklóssy also brings up two other groups that seem to have voted for Georgescu: rural residents and non-Romanians.
During his election campaign, Georgescu spoke a lot for poor rural areas. For example, he criticized Ukrainian grain imported to Europe, which according to him has put Romanian farmers in a disadvantageous position.
On the other hand, Romanians living outside the West have stubbornly leaned more and more towards extreme nationalism.
Miklóssy also considers it possible that Georgescu’s speech resonated with Romanians exhausted by the war in Ukraine.
Georgescu supports ending the war in Ukraine.
When talking about the war, he has used claims familiar from Russian propaganda, for example that the Ukrainians would finance the war. In reality, Russia is waging a war of aggression in the region.
Explanation 4: Traditional parties failed
Georgescu’s surprising election success may be due to his distaste for the ruling parties.
Such an unpredictable election result has not been seen in Romania for decades, not since communism collapsed, says docent Katalin Miklóssy.
– Georgescu is a real dark horse.
Miklóssy points out that both candidates who made it to the second round come from outside the traditional ruling parties.
If the current results remain valid, Georgescu will be challenged by a center-right candidate Elena Lasconi. The second round of the election is this week, Sunday, December 8.
In Miklóssy’s opinion, part of Georgescu’s election success may be due to the fact that the ruling parties failed to attract their supporters to the ballot box.
The reason may also be the corruption scandals in which the social democrats have floundered.