Electoral earthquake in Romania. The British daily The Guardian even speaks of a “shock”. Pro-Russian candidate Calin Georgescu took the lead in the first round of the presidential election on Sunday, November 24. While no one expected him, this candidate “arrived out of nowhere”, according to the site Politicodamned the pro-European Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, after the counting of more than 98% of the votes. First given a clear lead by the exit polls, the 56-year-old social-democrat leader saw this 62-year-old far-right rival rise again in the evening. He has so far received 22.59% of the votes, compared to 19.55% for Marcel Ciolacu.
Elena Lasconi, center-right mayor of a small town, comes in third place at 18.84%. Favored by the far right before the election, George Simion of the AUR party (Alliance for the Unity of Romanians) must be content with fourth place, at 13.94%. The latter congratulated his opponent, rejoicing that a “sovereignist” found himself in the second round. With his passionate speech tinged with conspiracy, George Simion, 38, a big fan of future American President Donald Trump, failed to capitalize on the distress of a part of the population impoverished by high inflation.
Conversely, Calin Georgescu has attracted attention in recent days with a TikTok campaign that has gone viral, focused on the need to stop aid to Ukraine and the need to reduce Romania’s dependence on imports. “The economic uncertainty imposed on the Romanian people for 35 years has today become an uncertainty for the political parties,” said Calin Georgescu in his first reaction after the close of the elections. He called the result a “stunning awakening” for Romanian voters.
This very religious and nationalist man will face Marcel Ciolacu in a second round scheduled for December 8, with in the meantime legislative elections on December 1. Whatever the outcome of the vote, “the far right is by far the big winner of this election”, with more than 35% of the votes, political scientist Cristian Pirvulescu commented for AFP. The sixty-year-old’s speech took advantage of a tense social and geopolitical climate in this loyal EU and NATO member state, located at the gates of Ukraine.
Note that Calin Georgescu is very critical of his Western allies, describing NATO’s anti-ballistic missile shield as a “disgrace to diplomacy”. The far-right candidate repeated that the EU and NATO did not properly represent Romanian interests and that Russia’s war in Ukraine, a Romanian neighbor, was being manipulated by American military companies. For Calin Georgescu, Vladimir Putin is “a man who loves his country”.
“A political earthquake”
It is an upheaval for this country of 19 million inhabitants which has until now resisted nationalist postures, setting itself apart from its neighbors such as Hungary or Slovakia. This is a “political earthquake in Romania”, summarizes the American site Bloomberg which recalls that the country has “helped arm kyiv, notably with Patriot anti-missile defense systems, since the large-scale invasion of Russia in 2022.”
The President of the Romanian Republic occupies an essentially ceremonial function but exercises an important moral magisterium. After ten years in power of Klaus Iohannis, a fervent supporter of kyiv who became very unpopular due in particular to his costly trips abroad financed with public money, the Romanians have therefore set their sights on anti-system candidates, against a backdrop of rising ultra-conservative movements in Europe.
Romania, sharing a 650-kilometer border with Ukraine and bordered by the Black Sea, plays a “vital” strategic role, recalls the New Strategy Center think tank in a study. Both for NATO, of which it houses more than 5,000 soldiers, and for the transit of Ukrainian cereals. Building on these good scores in the presidential election, the far right should benefit from “a contagion effect” in the legislative elections on December 1, predicts Cristian Pirvulescu. Which bodes difficult negotiations to form a coalition. The social democrats, heirs of the former communist party which has structured the country’s political life for more than three decades, currently govern in coalition with the liberals of the PNL.