a Prime Minister accepted by Le Pen, but under conditions?

A replacement must be found for Michel Barnier and, as is often the case, Sébastien Lecornu appears to be a serious contender for Matignon. The name of the Minister of the Armed Forces is one of those which comes up most insistently in the rumors surrounding the appointment of the next Prime Minister. He had already been a few months ago before the Michel Barnier hypothesis won, or even in January before the choice fell on Gabriel Attal. Will this time be the right one?

Sébastien Lecornu prefers to distance himself and play it safe to avoid further disappointment. “In each reshuffle, I have the right to almost the same refrain,” he declared on RTL this Thursday, December 5, the day after government censorship and a few hours before a speech by Emmanuel Macron, whose announcements raise many questions. The minister who has participated in all governments since the first election of the head of state in 2017 also recalls that “it is the President of the Republic who appoints” the Prime Minister. Far from him the idea of ​​speculating on presidential intentions or even pretending to govern: “I am not a candidate for anything,” he assured on RTL.

His profile and solid political experience: assets for Lecornu

The hypothesis of appointing Sébastien Lecornu, however, seems to attract the attention of Emmanuel Macron who demonstrated the confidence he had in his minister. And the man has a serious asset: a CV worthy of a political professional. He was a parliamentary assistant at 19, mayor of Vernon at 27, president of the department of Eure at 28 and propelled into government at 31. He plays his part discreetly and has climbed the government ladder from Secretary of State for the Ecological Transition in 2017 to Minister of the Armed Forces in 2022. In the meantime, he was appointed Minister Delegate for Territorial Cohesion and Minister for Overseas Territories.

Its cordial relations with the RN: a major argument

In addition to his profile which reflects a certain knowledge of institutions, it is the relationships that Sébastien Lecornu maintains with the different political forces which could help him gain access to Matignon. The future Prime Minister will have to succeed where Michel Barnier failed: build a majority by securing the support of the right while opening dialogue with the elected representatives of the National Rally and, if possible, the socialists.

The minister who joined the Macronist party in 2017 comes from the right of the UMP and LR with whom he is still in good contact, enough to hope for the support of this political family. Above all, Sébastien Lecornu seems able to avoid automatic censorship of the RN since he has already led fruitful negotiations with the party, such as on the military programming law, and he has respectful relations with Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. The three politicians have even already dined together with Thierry Solère, a close advisor to Emmanuel Macron, as revealed Release this summer. But if the RN should not automatically oppose this hypothetical Prime Minister, it could, as with Michel Barniern, condition its support on several demands concerning the 2025 Budget and other points: pensions, an immigration law or the question of proportionality.

It is with the left that the Minister of the Armed Forces could have more difficulty negotiating. But Sébastien Lecornu reached out to the PS this Thursday, December 5 on RTL. “I call for everything to be done […] to allow the PS to get out of the path it has taken in recent weeks and months”, he declared in reference to the rapprochement of the left party with LFI. “We will have to discuss and demonstrate compromise”, he added. Will the PS be receptive to his words? Dialogue, however, does not seem possible between Sébastien Lecornu and LFI, neither in one direction nor the other. The party coordinator rebellious, Manuel Bompard also assured that “if [le ministre] was appointed as Prime Minister, we would seek to censor him” on the same media.

Its proximity to Macron: a possible obstacle for Matignon

If Sébastien Lecornu ticks many boxes, he could suffer from one detail: his proximity to Emmanuel Macron. The man is often alongside the Head of State, even in recent days he accompanied the President on his trip to Saudi Arabia. The opportunity to discuss a possible nomination? The subject was not discussed, indicated the possible suitor to Matignon.

The appointment of Sébastien Lecornu, an early Macronist, would not allow the change in political line expected since the 2024 legislative elections. The ballot organized after the dissolution was won by the left alliance, but this is the defeat of the Macronist camp and the emergence of a tripartite Assembly in which a majority is struggling to form which really marked these elections. So appointing a personality from the disavowed presidential party could be seen as a new negation of the results of the legislative elections after the appointment of Michel Barnier, whose political family only has 45 deputies. However, according to The PointEmmanuel Macron would be tempted to appoint a Prime Minister from the central bloc, and therefore from his camp.