Ukrainian military intelligence claims that a new wave of mobilization will be launched in Russia after the New Year holidays. This time it would concern 500,000 people. Clearly questionable information.
This is not the first time that Ukrainian sources have announced the return of mobilization to Russia. These announcements have even been made almost daily since December and raise a number of questions in the country. The first wave of “partial mobilization” last September caused a wave of panic, hundreds of thousands of young Russians leaving the country in disaster to escape conscription.
This information from Ukraine is obviously to be taken with caution. But the fact is that the subject is at the heart of conversations in Russia. On the ultranationalist side, on the “war to the limit” camp, it is loudly demanded: if, as the propaganda repeats repeatedly, Russia is now at war against the entire West, then it must mobilize completely.
From a military point of view, most experts agree that without a new influx of soldiers, Russia will not be able to regain the initiative. ” If the war continues in 2023, mobilization is inevitable », wrote for example at the end of December the military historian Igor Kurtukov for the Meduza news site. ” I think that the mobilization will be reactivated, but will be done in a hidden way “, predicts political scientist Dimitri Kolezev. One way to avoid, this time, to scare away all the men who can be mobilized from Russia.