A few days before the first round of the legislative elections, scheduled for Sunday June 30, the polls suggest the scenario of a severe defeat for the Republicans.
Which political force will have a majority in the National Assembly at the end of the legislative elections on June 30 and July 7? The campaign is structured around three blocs: the union of the left under the banner of the New Popular Front, the extreme right which has concluded an agreement with a small part of LR and finally the presidential majority which wishes to expand, without success. The National Rally remains above the 30% voting intention mark in the latest poll published by Ifop for LCI. It reached the symbolic bar of one third of voting intentions and distanced the left coalition which was placed in second position. On the other hand, Les Républicains only came in 4th position with only 5% of voting intentions.
The Republicans had a disappointing performance to say the least during the last European elections, on June 9. The list led by François-Xavier Bellamy had gathered 7.24% of the votes and at the same time sent 6 deputies to the European Parliament. With such a performance, the right came in 5th position, behind LFI, the Socialist Party, Renaissance, and very far from the National Rally which achieved a score of 31.47% nationally. A crushing defeat which visibly gave the president of the party, Eric Ciotti, a headache.
After the shock announcement of the dissolution of the National Assembly by the President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron, the leader of the Republicans, after the European election, caused an earthquake in his party by calling for an alliance with the National Rally with a view to the legislative elections, the first round of which will take place on June 30.On the Republican side, Eric Ciotti is being rejected from all sides, with some going so far as to ask for his resignation from the party. A real split could be created among the Republicans, torn between the macronie, the RN and their desire for independence. In addition, in the middle of the campaign, Eric Ciotti is the target of an investigation for “embezzlement of public funds” during the 2022 legislative campaign. Precisely, in 2022, the LR-UDI list had collected 7.28% of the votes, already far behind the main forces of the country. The presidential majority came in first position, followed by Nupes then the National Rally on the last step of the podium.
Since 2017, the Republicans have continued to decline over the course of the elections, until the latest polls for the 2024 legislative elections yield a meager score of 5% in terms of voting intentions for the right. During the 2017 legislative elections, LR received 22% of the votes, in second position behind LREM (presidential party with 43%). Since then, the French right has continued to lower its flag. The 2019 European meeting was a dismal failure, the LR list obtained 8.5% of the votes, behind the Greens, LREM-MoDem and the RN which won the elections with 23% of the votes. Two years later, during the 2022 legislative elections, a new setback for the right, LR-UDI totaled 7.28% of the votes. For this new legislative election, on June 30 and July 7, it is difficult to imagine LR raising its head, particularly after the call from the boss of the right, Eric Ciotti, to form a “rally of the rights” with the National Rally.For the moment, projections allocate between 25 and 35 deputy seats to LR representatives.