The attacks on Belgorod, Russia, are one of the largest attacks on Russia by the Ukrainian side during the war. Russia accuses the West of supporting the attacks.
– It is no secret that the equipment given to Ukraine by the West is used against our army. And it’s no secret that the direct and indirect involvement of Western countries in this conflict is increasing all the time. We will draw the relevant conclusions from it, thundered the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on the other hand, said that Russia would respond to attacks on its territory “very harshly”.
Two Russian groups have claimed responsibility for the attacks: the Russian Freedom Legion and the Russian Volunteer Forces RDK. Both oppose the president Vladimir Putin.
Russia blames Ukraine for the attack that started on Monday and says it has killed more than 70 Ukrainian fighters.
Russia released pictures of abandoned or damaged Western military vehicles, according to including vehicles manufactured in the United States.
After the attacks, the United States quickly repeated its position that its weapons should not be used on Russian soil.
– In general, we have said that we do not encourage or enable attacks on Russia. But we’ve also said that it’s up to Ukraine to decide how they’re going to fight this war, said a US State Department spokesman Matt Miller on Tuesday.
Miller admitted that according to information spreading on social media, US-supplied weapons were used, but the US is “skeptical about the veracity of these reports”.
The West avoids escalation
Attacks on Russian soil with Western equipment may affect Ukraine’s future arms aid, says a military professor at the National Defense University Aki-Mauri Huhtinen.
– An individual case does not destabilize arms aid yet, but if more of these start to appear, the situation will be different. The United States strictly adheres to the fact that its weapons are not used on Russian soil, says Huhtinen.
Leading researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Charly Salonius-Pasternak emphasizes that avoiding escalation is a key goal for the United States and NATO:
– The United States in particular, but NATO as a whole has tried to ensure that its own actions do not add more water to the mill regarding Russian propaganda that Russia would fight against NATO.
Ukraine’s role in the attack?
Ukraine has said it has nothing to do with the events.
According to Huhtinen, it is hard to believe that the attack was launched completely without the help of Ukrainian military intelligence.
– It is very likely that Ukraine knew about the attacks and gave support in the attack. Without Ukraine’s help, it would have been very difficult for Russian groups to cross the border, Huhtinen states.
That, too, is problematic if the factions operate without Ukraine’s approval. According to Huhtinen, the United States is very particular about who it gives top technology to.
– A new player has now entered the playing field, with whom no agreements have been made. If there are more similar attacks, the United States will have to rethink things, Huhtinen estimates.
Russia is trying to use the attack in propaganda
The attack fuels Moscow’s narrative of being a victim of war.
– It gives confirmation to the story that Russia’s own security is under attack by the evil forces of the West. Russia is now tearing everything apart in terms of propaganda, says Huhtinen.
Reports that some of those involved in the attack are linked to far-right extremists bolster Moscow’s claim that it is trying to rid Ukraine of neo-Nazis.
On the other hand, a surprise attack is embarrassing for Russia.
– Russia was taken by surprise, and now it must quickly react militarily. You have to clean up your plot quickly, says Huhtinen.
According to Huhtinen, Ukraine is also trying to use the attack in propaganda.
– This shows that the Russians are also strongly opposed to Putin’s regime. It remains to be seen how well it sinks into the Russian public, says Huhtinen.
Will Russia have to move troops to Belgorod?
Although Ukraine itself has denied its involvement, it has nevertheless praised the bravery of the attackers.
– We can only congratulate the decisive actions of the opposition-minded Russian citizens who are ready for an armed struggle against Putin’s criminal regime, said the spokesperson of the Ukrainian military intelligence Andrii Yusov country’s Yleisradio in the interview.
Both Russian groups have said on social media that they intend to create a security zone on the border between Russia and Ukraine.
As one option, Huhtinen also sees that the attack can be part of Ukraine’s future counter-attack and the goal is to pull Russian troops away from the south.
The Russian Freedom Legion says its tactical goal is to pressure Russia into moving units:
– The situation in Belgorod has been going on for some time and it attracts a lot of attention. Therefore, Russia has to bring reinforcements there from other fronts. If they bring units there from the Ukrainian front, it will facilitate the Ukrainian counterattack, said the spokesperson of the Russian Freedom Legion Alexei Baranovsky in an interview with news agency Reuters.
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