“a moment of truth that shows the difficulty of existing” oppositions

Last week, the Prime Minister drew twice the 49-3 to pass the first part of the state budget and the revenue part of the Social Security budget. To discuss the current political climate, interview with Jean-Christophe Gallien, political scientist and communicator, teacher at the University of Paris la Sorbonne, president of the JCGA communication and influence workshop.

RFI: Are we experiencing what will become the norm for this second five-year term of Emmanuel Macron : passages in force and motions of censure?

Jean-Christophe Gallien : We do indeed have the illustration of a context where two majorities are trying to organize their relations. The parliamentary majority which recognizes a relative majority and on the other hand, the majority which is, for it, the presidential majority. This “presidential majority” organizes a form of domination despite everything in the French constitutional system.

We have a balance of power that is also being put in place with the oppositions which theoretically have a majority in the National Assembly, but which face the responsibility of alliances if they want to try to do so in their disagreement with the government. drop. This is what allows motion of censure. And on the other hand, there is a government which has a weapon which is to force through. This weapon has been controlled since July 2008: it can be done without limit within the budgetary procedure or that concerning the social security budget, and on the other side, on the other hand, within of a parliamentary question, do it only once.

►Also read: Politics: the 49-3 season officially open in France

So, we are in this balance of power which brings political life back to something that resembles a simply political conversation around techniques, opposition relations, influences, and which actually forgets a little bit about the substance of things. This is the context in which we are today. On the one hand, yes, we must keep the relative majority united, on the other hand the oppositions are trying to unite. But at the same time, we can see that it’s difficult to do it, we can’t do it.

To stay on the sequence of the day, we know that the government will not fall, because the oppositions will not succeed in uniting?

Exactly. This is the whole difficulty of the motion of censure. In the country’s constitutional history, it only happened once she succeeded in bringing down a government. There, in this case, we have disagreements. Some will say that they can’t work, that we don’t let them discuss the substance, we go through in force and we need to react. And on the other side, the government says: No, you are guerrilla, amendments, we are not on the merits either “.

The reality is that it is very difficult for the oppositions, even with a relative majority, to establish themselves in a process of balanced relations with a government because they would have to come together in the strong moment which is the budgetary procedure…. However, they are even plural, as we can clearly see, and they do not even want to hear of a vote on a motion of censure that does not emanate from their own group.

It’s a moment of truth also for the oppositions and it’s a moment of truth which also shows their difficulty in concretely existing in this context.

In an interview at JDD, former President Nicolas Sarkozy suggested to Emmanuel Macron to turn to the right, that is to say to conclude a political agreement with Les Républicains to achieve a majority which would become absolute in the National Assembly. Is this really an option?

This is an option declared by some from the beginning…

On paper, it would work. But on paper…

Exactly. But on paper, we must guarantee a certain number of deputies who are likely to participate. We can see it this time around. It’s not that they associate with the government. In any case, they refuse to vote for the attack which is made by two other important opposition groups. Is Nicolas Sarkozy, that he is on a mission? Is he involved in something aimed at stabilizing a regime whose difficulties we can clearly see? There, too, we are living through a particular political moment.

The budgetary procedure is a very important moment. But the government has especially difficulties on the parliamentary sessions where there is now only one capacity only for a text of law by session to pass in force, whereas before it was possible all the time. So, it’s a moment, once again, pivotal because it’s there that the political attitudes will be revealed or not besides with a view precisely to this association.

Is it an association, a contract that would be for the entire term of office? Is it a fixed-term contract by periods or by sequences? It’s quite interesting, and we’ll see how the party itself will react, because Nicolas Sarkozy is only one element…

… outside.

Exactly. We saw it during the presidential election. He rather supported Emmanuel Macron than the candidate of his own party. In this case, it is a real subject, it is also a challenge for the Republicans because, in doing so, they obviously risk, not drowning, but in any case getting lost in a space that will make it difficult for them to achieve a singularity that is that of post-Macron.

Can it last five years like this?

That will be difficult. Moreover, Emmanuel Macron himself said so. He said : “ We will have times when we will go strong. And if this passage in force is refused… »

… I whistle the end of the game and I dissolve!

Exactly, because his second weapon is that of dissolution. It is true that it is estimated in his environment, indeed, that it is something that he has taken into account. Will it be next year or the following years? We’ll see. Everything will depend in fact on this scripting at work.