The Labor Party will get a majority in the House of Commons of the British Parliament, a prestigious door-to-door poll says.
The British Labor Party will get a massive election victory, according to a door-to-door poll conducted jointly by the BBC, ITV and Sky.
According to door-to-door polls, Labor will get 410 seats in the 650-seat lower house of parliament. Currently, the Labor Party has 205 seats in the parliament, which means that the party would more than double its number of representatives in the lower house of the parliament.
The Tory-conservative party will get 131 seats, the door-to-door poll predicts. The party currently has 344 representatives in the parliament, which means the seats will collapse to less than half of the current number. This would be the worst election result for the Conservatives since the world wars.
The door-to-door poll predicts 61 seats for the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage 13 seats for the Reform UK party and 10 seats for the Scottish party SNP.
This is a respected prediction, which is also being made by a Finnish professor
The door-to-door poll of the British general election has risen to legendary fame. Its hit accuracy has been amazingly good: for example, in 2019, it predicted the number of seats for the Conservative Party by only three seats wrong.
The present-day door-to-door survey was developed in the 21st century by a researcher of John Curtice and by David Firth under. The group responsible for door-to-door polling is still led by Curtice, who has gained great popularity as an expert in election studios.
The door-to-door survey is conducted with a small sample at around 130 polling stations around the country. Those who have just voted in the survey are given a slip on which they write their voting decision, after which the slip is collected in a box.
Based on the results, Curtice’s team does computational modelswho have predicted the final result of the election very accurately.
A Finnish confirmation is also conducting the popular door-to-door survey: a professor of sociological statistics at the London School of Economics Jouni Kuha has been part of the forecasting group since 2010.
The New York Times interviewed Kuha recently about making a prediction. According to Kuha, conducting the expected door-to-door survey on a tight schedule is “a special experience for a researcher who is used to working in a very different time frame.”
“It’s stressful, but at the same time very exciting,” the academic commented to NYT.
The story is updated.