The little music of a possible dissolution of the National Assembly the day after the presidential election has come up regularly lately. Why ? With what impact? Explanations.
Would a dissolution of the General Assembly be considered by Emmanuel Macron the day after the 2nd round of the 2022 presidential election? A note distributed on April 4 to deputies questioned in the corridors of the Bourbon palace. Its purpose: “consequences of a possible dissolution on the compensation scheme for deputies and the situation of their collaborators.” The document, unveiled by European 1, was written by Catherine Leroy, secretary general of the questure, and addressed to Eric Ciotti (LR), Florian Bachelier (LREM) and Laurianne Rossi (LREM), all three quaestors in the hemicycle. So, of course, the distribution of such a document stirred up parliamentarians, especially since the hypothesis of a possible dissolution of the lower house of Parliament comes up regularly, already mentioned in mid-March by The chained Duck and in November by Opinion. Why would Emmanuel Macron think about this hypothesis if he is re-elected President of the Republic on Sunday April 24, 2022? What would be the interests? What risks would he take with such a decision, when the legislative elections are scheduled for Sunday June 12 and 19?
Why could Emmanuel Macron dissolve the National Assembly?
The master of clocks that is Emmanuel Macron knows it: in 2022, there will be 13 more campaign days than five years ago. Two more weeks that make Macronie feverish. Because if since the transition to the five-year term, any newly elected president has been reinforced by obtaining a majority in the National Assembly, the situation may not be as obvious this year at the end of the presidential election, given the political recomposition which is coming. If, to tell the truth, the Insoumis, the RN or Reconquête should not complicate the political calculations of Emmanuel Macron too much, if he is re-elected, the president-candidate could, in the event of victory on April 24, have to organize a coalition to benefit from a clear majority at the Bourbon Palace.
Because the sacred union of La République en Marche has crumbled since 2017. Already, at the time, the brand new party founded by the former Minister of Finance had not obtained a majority of deputies in the National Assembly . Pre-presidential agreements had been made with the MoDem of François Bayrou and Agir of Franck Riester. The two party presidents were then each appointed minister. The situation has become a little more complex over the mandate for Emmanuel Macron. Not happy to see the ranks of his family thinning out somewhat – around thirty deputies elected under the LREM label in 2017 will not return – the president-candidate has seen political chapels springing up from the ground, launched by certain faithful, starting with Edouard Philippe, its former Prime Minister.
If the former head of government fully supports the one who appointed him to Matignon, the mayor of Le Havre intends to weigh in on negotiations for electoral agreements and negotiate constituencies to position Horizons candidates (his party) in place of LREM: enough to try to bring into the National Assembly an elected official supporting the Head of State but having a certain freedom and room for maneuver. At the same time, Emmanuel Macron could have to discuss with Les Républicains after their presidential wreckage, just like with a part of the left.
To avoid talks that would drag on, the dissolution of the AN on April 25 would lead to a new call of voters to the polls earlier than expected, thus limiting in time the discussions for political agreements, both in its camp and in those of the opposition, who would struggle to unite in a short time after weeks of campaigning firing red balls at each other, whether on the right or on the left.
What would be the dates of the legislative elections if the National Assembly is dissolved?
Beyond disrupting negotiations for the composition of the Bourbon Palace, Emmanuel Macron could dissolve the National Assembly to keep voters mobilized and have a Parliament operational faster than expected and start work on the major reforms he intends to carry out. he accesses the Elysée again. But the possible President of the Republic for the next five years would gain “only” two to three weeks. Indeed, at the earliest, he could dissolve the Assembly the day after a possible victory, that is to say on Monday 25 April. Article 12 of the Constitution provides that a deadline of 20 days must be respected at least after the dissolution, which would fall right on Sunday May 15 (second round on Sunday 22). If he dissolves it between Tuesday April 26 and Monday May 2, the elections could take place on Sunday May 22 and 29. If the dissolution were to be later, Emmanuel Macron would only gain a week on the date initially planned, which would not upset much.
Dissolution of the National Assembly: what does Macron say?
Is the hypothesis of a dissolution of the National Assembly by Emmanuel Macron in the event of re-election really possible? Factually, yes. On the other hand, politically, the operation promises to be more delicate. Both for the image sent back to the Parliamentarians with whom he will have to deal for the next five years and to public opinion, he to whom the “Jupiterian” image already sticks. For his part, Richard Ferrand, President of the National Assembly, brushed aside the idea, swearing on March 23 that the calendar “is intended to be kept, except in special circumstances”, but that ‘there’s no reason not to hold it.’ For his part, on April 17, Emmanuel Macron had answered the question frankly, also dismissing the reflection: “I have too much respect for democratic meetings to shake them up or give the feeling, in a way, of playing with.” The outgoing president had gone further in the columns of the Figaro April 7: “in this context (of the war in ukraine, editor’s note), being able to convene Parliament in an emergency seems important to me, which would not be possible in the event of dissolution. Moreover, we must not give our compatriots the feeling that we are playing games with the electoral calendar. Especially since this calendar was set by the outgoing President of the Republic. Finally, a dissolution would only advance the ballot by barely fifteen days.