“A huge number of Chinese people will die within a few months” – China’s corona epidemic exploded, a grim forecast from an expert

A huge number of Chinese people will die within a

Long lines of hearses have been queuing in front of crematoria in China for days. The congestion started after China abandoned its strict corona restrictions a couple of weeks ago.

At the same time, social media has been filled with pictures of overcrowded hospitals and lines of body bags in China. The catalog is very similar to what was published after the corona epidemic broke out in Wuhan at the beginning of 2020. has not been able to check whether the videos and pictures published on social media are genuine or recent.

According to the authorities, however, the corona mortality rate is very low. Five corona-related deaths were reported throughout the country on Tuesday and two on Monday. It was later reported that one of these was not caused by the corona virus.

Today, Wednesday, there were officially zero corona deaths. At the same time, crematoria suffer from extraordinary congestion.

How is this possible, university lecturer specializing in China at the University of Turku Outi Luova?

– Everyone can see with their own eyes what the situation is. The official number of corona deaths is not correct, says Luova.

According to him, the statistics of corona deaths are now being recorded in China in such a way that the situation seems better than reality.

China has begun to define corona as a cause of death only in those cases where a person suffering from the disease caused by the corona virus dies directly from respiratory disorders caused by the disease, such as pneumonia and respiratory failure.

Consequently, a huge number of corona-related deaths remain unreported.

The statistical method is against the recommendation of the World Health Organization WHO, says the British public radio BBC (switch to another service). According to Luova, the issue is very political in China.

– China has previously criticized Western countries for their reckless corona policy, where the virus has been allowed to spread and cause deaths. Now China is doing the same thing itself, so the political leadership is having trouble figuring out how to report this. The reasoning is that the weakened virus is no longer as deadly.

The coronavirus situation has been played down in China before. According to Luova, the situation is not much different from the normal practice of the Chinese administration. Very few statistics can be trusted in China anyway.

– It is clear that a huge number of Chinese will die within a few months due to poor vaccination coverage, says Luova.

Vaccination coverage of elderly people in particular has remained stubbornly low in China, although the administration has recently targeted the elderly.

The crematoria are full

A round of calls by news agency AFP revealed that crematoria across China are currently struggling with the same situation.

– The number of corpses in recent days has multiplied compared to the previous one. We are very busy, and there is no more space in the refrigerator, says a person who works at a crematorium in Chongqing, in the central part of the country.

He does not take a position on whether the deaths are related to the disease caused by the coronavirus. This question was not answered in the other crematoria either.

In southern Guangzhou, it is reported that crematoria are now carrying out three or four times more cremations than normal.

– The situation in the whole city is like this. We get new calls all the time, says a local employee.

British news channel Sky News (switch to another service) went from the beginning of the week to film the long lines of cars at the crematoria in Beijing. In several places, the authorities forbade filming and drove the film crew away.

China gave up restrictions too quickly

In China, there was a large demonstration against the long-standing strict corona restrictions a month ago.

Shortly after the protests were tamed, China abandoned its policy of zero corona infection, but too quickly, says a professor of Chinese society and culture Matti Nojonen from the University of Lapland.

There are not enough medicines and intensive care places for those who need them. Hospitals are full and pharmacy shelves are empty.

According to Nojonen, the Chinese administration first made a mistake by clinging to zero tolerance and then abandoning it carelessly.

– The party has now messed up twice. It’s interesting to see how people react, says Nojonen.

He reminds that the situation is particularly sensitive for the president to Xi Jinpingin which China’s fight against the corona virus is very strongly personified.

Chinese New Year can spread corona throughout the country

Outi Luova says that in big cities, a large part of the population has been infected with the corona virus in recent weeks.

– If before the streets were empty because of the restrictions, now they are empty because everyone is sick.

China celebrates the New Year at the end of January, when hundreds of millions of people travel from the cities to their hometowns to visit their families.

– At that point, the disease will spread like wildfire to the countryside, where the health care system is very poor, says Matti Nojonen.

Luova thinks that the authorities hope that the corona wave that has started now will have eased by then. This is one of the reasons why it was decided to ease the restrictions in December.

– The next two months will be really challenging. Hopefully after that the situation will ease and people will be able to return to a fairly normal everyday life, says Luova.

Sources: AFP, Reuters, AP

What thoughts does China’s current corona situation evoke? You can discuss the topic until Thursday 22.12. until 11 p.m.

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