The long-standing territorial dispute has gained further momentum due to new oil discoveries in Guyana.
On Sunday, Venezuela held a referendum on whether a large part of neighboring Guyana should be annexed. According to the election authorities, the overwhelming majority, i.e. 95 percent of the voters, supported the regional union.
President Nicolás Maduro praised the fresh election results, the veracity of which has been questioned though. Venezuela has long considered the oil-rich Essequibo region as its own. It justifies its view on the regional divisions of the colonial era.
Venezuela, under the autocratic rule of Maduro, is a close ally of Russia in South America. The connection between the two countries has raised concerns in Guyana, when Venezuela has made stricter territorial claims.
– In the Guyanese debate, Venezuela’s relationship with Russia and Russia’s attack on Ukraine have been seen as ominous. Similarly, the use of referendums to support regional demands, says the professor of world politics at the University of Helsinki Teivo Teivainen To .
However, he points out that the difference with the disputed “referendums” organized by Russia in Ukraine is that the Venezuelan referendum did not take place inside the disputed territory.
According to Teivainen, Russia’s possible support could encourage Venezuela to take stricter measures. For example, the country could hope that Russia will prevent the condemning statements of the UN Security Council.
– However, Russia is not able to influence how other Latin American countries would react to the attack. My guess is that they would react quite strictly, says Teivainen.
It has been speculated that the referendum is above all an attempt by Maduro to ensure his re-election in next year’s elections.
– The threshold to move from reconnaissance to actual large-scale military measures can be quite high, says Teivainen.
Long roots in the territorial dispute
Although an attack does not seem likely, the situation has put Guyana on its toes. The country’s leadership says it will defend internationally recognized borders.
– The disputed area clearly belongs to Guyana, but the disputes related to it have been known and recognized for a long time, says Teivainen.
International Court of Justice (ICJ) has not issued a final decision on the territorial dispute, but last week it banned Venezuela from taking any steps to change the current situation. Venezuela does not recognize the jurisdiction of the ICJ in the case.
Like Venezuela, Guyana has significant oil reserves. New oil discoveries have recently been made, for example, right on the coast off Essequibo.
Sources: STT, AFP, AP, Reuters