A French geopolitical researcher asks how far Europe would be willing to go if the worst were to happen – i.e. Ukraine would collapse.
PARIS In Europe, there is an uproar over the French president Emmanuel Macron From the statement given at the Paris Ukraine meeting. Macron said that nothing should be ruled out in supporting Ukraine, including sending ground troops to Ukraine.
According to a French geopolitical researcher, Macron indicated in his speech that Europe should also prepare for the collapse of Ukraine.
– In that case, it would be quite likely that some kind of coalition of several countries would intervene directly in the situation, estimates the researcher and author Ulrich Bounat.
The researcher reminds that currently there are other ways to support Ukraine, such as equipping.
– However, if the worst were to happen, how far would Europe be prepared to go? That is the underlying message of Macron’s speeches, says Bounat, who works at the French Open Diplomacy Institute.
The German leadership is annoyed by Macron’s showing off
Macron’s toughened comments have also caused friction between France and Germany. According to the political researcher, the background is the completely different strategic thinking of the countries and the competition for European leadership.
– France promotes European defense, while Germany relies heavily on the United States and NATO. France wants to more clearly take on the role of foreign policy leader in Europe, and the German leadership is irritated by Macron’s showing off, says Bounat.
However, France’s credibility is hampered by the fact that the country’s financial investments to support Ukraine have remained more modest than Germany’s.
– Until now, France’s support has been political and Germany’s financial. However, it seems that France may finally live up to its big words and supply Ukraine with clearly more heavy weapons than at present, researcher Bounat says.
An internal political dispute has developed in France over support for Ukraine
The lower house of the French parliament, or the National Assembly, voted late on Tuesday in favor of the security agreement between Ukraine and France.
President of Ukraine to Volodymyr Zelensky and the agreement signed by Emmanuel Macron promises Ukraine three billion euros in support this year.
The security agreement was approved by a vote of 378–99. The far-left representatives sitting in the opposition voted against the agreement, and the representatives of the far-right National Alliance decided not to vote.
An advisory vote could no longer overturn the agreement, but MPs argued fiercely about the support given to Ukraine and Macron’s comments.
National Alliance Marine Le Pen defended the adequacy of the support France has already given to Ukraine and demanded greater restraint from Macron towards Russia.
Representatives of Macron’s party, on the other hand, accused the extremes of the opposition of complicity with Russia.
– Today, the National Assembly sent a clear message to the people of Ukraine: France is by your side. The vote was also a moment of truth, as it separated the supporters of Ukraine and the extremists standing by the Kremlin, wrote the French foreign minister Stéphane Séjourné message service in X.
Russia has increased its attacks on France
According to the French geopolitical researcher, there are no short-term or long-term plans to send troops to Ukraine, but Macron’s comments were meant to shake things up.
– France wants to position itself as Europe’s foreign policy leader and on the other hand to send a message to Russia to Vladimir Putinthat whatever he does, he cannot win in Ukraine, researcher Ulrich Bounat says.
The impudence of France and Macron is also explained by the fact that Russia has recently increased its hostile actions against France.
Numerous Russian-led disinformation campaigns and cyber-attacks have been proven in France, which have targeted, for example, the defense industry.
– Nuclear position France is now signaling nuclear position to Russia that we are ready for anything. It is a question of a deliberately open-ended strategy, to which Russia of course responds in kind.