In the aftermath of historic legislative elections, France is plunged into uncertainty: without a clear majority in the National Assembly, the prospect of an ungovernable country is worrying. Especially since compromises, coalitions, and cross-party negotiations are not part of its political culture.
Uncertainty hangs over future government architecture in wake of The unexpected victory of the New Popular Front (NFP), a heterogeneous left-wing alliance weakened by a relative majority, facing a presidential pole that does not admit defeat, despite a clear decline. No camp is able to govern alone.
The Macronists are therefore arguing for a coalition around their “central bloc”. But if on paper, the option is conceivable, in political reality, it seems difficult to build. The NFP, through the voice of Olivier Faure, said it was opposed to any “ coalition of opposites “, while on the right, it ” there will be neither coalition nor compromise ” from LR, declared Laurent Wauquiez, at the end of the second round of legislative elections.
A polarized landscape
The left-right divide is likely to be the first obstacle to any attempt to build a majority. The NFP’s program, from the repeal of the pension reform and the immigration law to the minimum wage of 1,600 euros net, seems hardly compatible with the ambitions of the presidential camp or the right. However, the union of the left is not for the moment willing to back down on these issues. An impasse looms.
” The Republican forces have a clear historical responsibility, points out Arnaud Benedetti, associate professor at the University of Paris-Sorbonne and editor-in-chief of the Revue politique et parlementaire. But how can they get along? When we hear the statements of the various parties, the ideological gap is such that it is hard to see how they can return – at least quickly – to a culture of compromise. »
However, this culture of compromise is precisely what would make it possible to avoid institutional blockages and end up with ” an ungovernable France “, some observers believe. But this is not a habit anchored in French political life, which remains very polarized and dominated by the left-right division, as these elections have reminded us. A change of mentality therefore seems necessary to face this unprecedented situation.
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A question of state of mind
“ We will have to get out of this habit of the fight of the leaders and conceive politics in a more sophisticated way, like a great agora where we must listen to others, take into account the opinions of others and manage to govern together. “, explains Marie-Anne Cohendet, professor of constitutional law at the University of Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne, on RFI microphone.
An analysis shared by political communicator Émilie Zapalski: “ This will require putting egos behind, thinking about the general interest and France before thinking “political parties”. Reasoning beyond the usual partisan practices is announced ” complicated ” but ” not impossible “, according to the founder of the agency Émilie conseil.
Between the two rounds, environmental leader Marine Tondelier already estimated that it would be necessary to “ to do things that no one has ever done before in this country ” in the event of an Assembly without a clear majority. ” Politics in this country cannot continue as before. We will have to change.”. A reflection also in progress with Raphaël Glucksmann: “ We will have to discuss, debate, change political culture”declared the leader of Place publique on Sunday evening.
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A diet problem?
However, it is not just a question of mindset, experts point out. The regime and its institutions can also represent an obstacle. For example, the role and power of the president, elected by direct universal suffrage, has a considerable influence on the personal ambitions of political actors, analyses Arnaud Benedetti. And therefore can harm any desire for a coalition, by favouring a race for the top of the State where a strengthened executive reigns.
But above all, the Fifth Republic was not designed to manage this kind of situation. General de Gaulle and Michel Debré built the Fifth Republic to enable France, among other things, to have stable and governable majorities over time.”with an electoral system that tends to favor the emergence of a clear majority, recalls the associate professor at the University of Paris-Sorbonne. This regime ” hybrid “, parliamentary but semi-presidential, complicates the task.
Other models
This is why constitutionalist Marie-Anne Cohendet suggests “ to adopt proportional representation, like almost all EU countries “, a system that makes “ increasingly the object of a broad consensus ” This would allow in particular ” to calm our political life”believes the law professor. But are German or Italian models, where sometimes surprising political alliances are forged with pragmatism and a certain ideological flexibility, importable to France?
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” We will see it when put to the test. “, retorts Arnaud Benedetti, who warns of the “ very eruptive » from France, where Germany has ” a political culture of negotiations “And which also recalls that, if France has known coalitions during previous republics, the 4th ended up giving way under the weight of its instability.
Marie-Anne Cohendet nevertheless qualifies: “ We gave a caricatured vision of these regimes because de Gaulle wanted to concentrate power. But a lot of great things happened under the Third and Fourth Republics. And beyond the ministerial reshuffles, there was great stability in the political personnel.
Surprises
The professor of constitutional law also wants to believe that mentalities are changing, as in cohabitations where “ The French have adapted very quickly to the fact that power is passing from the Élysée to Matignon “But before having to adapt to any government coalition, it still has to see the light of day.
Political communicator Émilie Zapalski believes in it: “ The question is not whether it will happen, but how. Will this coalition be more left or right? It is up to politicians to find the lowest common denominator to be able to find a government program that will last about a year.”. Which does not seem to him ” not completely impossible “.
After all, the NFP’s victory in this second round was a surprise. And “ we may not have seen the last of our surprises “, she says. The only certainty, therefore, is uncertainty. But experts agree that a deadlock situation would constitute a “ window of opportunity ” for the RN and a significant resource to fuel its momentum, with 2027 in sight.
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