French President Emmanuel Macron is considered one of the strongest European supporters of Ukraine. But the situation could well change after the electoral period in France because the possibility of a government of the far-right National Rally (RN) party would modify France’s position in the Ukrainian file and on the international scene, confides Nicolas Tenzer , teacher at Sciences Po Paris, author of Our war, crime and oblivion published by the Observatory.
4 mins
RFI: Is France at risk of finding itself isolated if by chance the National Rally forms a government after the legislative elections?
Nicolas Tenzer: It is absolutely obvious that this will be a catastrophe for France. This will be a disaster, of course, because it would have lost all credibility, it would have lost its status, it would truly appear as the sick man of Europe. And we imagine European Councils, international meetings, the G7 or otherwhere we would see Emmanuel Macron flanked by Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. That would be absolutely terrible.
We can also imagine that most intelligence services in other countries would hesitate to share a certain amount of sensitive information with the France. So, I believe that we absolutely must not minimize this kind of catastrophe that would occur for the country. If this were to happen, we would have to wait many years before France, with another government, regains its status and its place.
In the event of a government formed by the National Rally, knowing that this party never supported Ukraine in its war against Moscow, what could happen?
Concerning Ukraine, it would also be a disaster. So certainly, we have a sort of pretense today with the National Rally trying to soften its tone. The reality is that the National Rally, whether in the French Parliament or the European Parliament, has never voted for any resolution in favor of Ukraine, nor any resolution clearly condemning Russian aggression and war crimes. . This is the reality.
We see a number of personalities who have been elected to the European Parliament and some of the candidates for the legislative elections who have always displayed unconditional support for Vladimir Putinsome even wearing a T-shirt bearing the image of the Russian dictator, so that means that in concrete terms Ukraine would be completely sacrificed.
It is often said that the president has a kind of pre-eminence in matters of foreign policy and defense, but in reality, it would be a kind of sovereignty shared much more than exclusive of the president between the president and his prime minister. This also means concretely that RN parliamentarians, if they had a majority in the National Assembly, could block any support budget for Ukraine – either a budget directly from France, or a transfer of funds to the European Union .
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And as for our partners, our allies, how could they react?
When we see the echoes of a certain number of our partners, of course, they absolutely do not understand the decision of the President of the Republic, especially after a stretch of a few days that had preceded it which were extremely positive. The presence of President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Joe Biden at the ceremonies of the 80th anniversary of the landing, the personal meetings in France between Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky, the joint statements between President Zelensky and President Macron, with the president’s announcements on the sending Mirages, on sending military instructors. So all of this was a fairly exceptional sequence.
France had finally understood the reality of the Russian danger, had said that Ukraine could strike on Russian territory with French weapons; the other allies, moreover, are mostly in this position. And suddenly, we have the impression that all this can be called into question and that ultimately the question of Europe, our security and Ukraine did not play at all in the president’s decision to dissolve the ‘National Assembly.
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