A fan theory shows how you increase your last chance of a toty with a pack

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A strong pack is available in EA FC 25 until 7:00 p.m., which you can repeat infinitely often. On Reddit, a fan has set up a theory of how many attempts could be the probability of a Team of the Year (Toty). On MeinMMO we explain to you which pack it is, how you can open it again and again and what exactly the fan theory says.

What kind of pack is that? In the Squad Building Challenges (SBCS) you can find the 82+X20 pack under the “Upgrades” tab. This includes 20 players who have a minimum of 82. It is only available to you until Friday, January 31 at 7:00 p.m.

How do you conclude the pack? To complete the upgrade pack, you have to complete 2 part SBCs:

  • 83-GEST team: swaps 1 team with a minimum rating of 83 and a “Team of the Week” professional (TOTW)
  • You can build the team from 9×83 professionals and 2×82 professionals
  • 84-GEST team: swap 1 team with a minimum of 84, 1 professional needs an 86 rating
  • You can build the team from 1×86 professionals, 6×84 professionals, and 4×82 professionals

    • What do you get at the end? For the 83 team you will receive an X2 professional pack (1 gold professional guaranteed + 1 gold/silver professional, one of them rare) and a premium gold pack (12 gold professional and association Items, which guarantees 3 professional items and 3 rarely) worth 7,500 coins. Finally, both SBCs get the 82+-x20 upgrade pack as a group bonus.

    You can read what you can do with drawn players and how you potentially get to Toty players in this news.

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    Your Toty Chance: Repeatable upgrades with a clever exchange

    What do you do with the drawn players? Once you have opened the upgrade pack, you have already secured the basis for the next 82+-x20 SBC, no matter what you are pulling. Since you get players with a minimum rating of 82, you can proceed with your drawn professionals as follows:

  • 82 professionals: Exchange you directly back into the 83 gods and 84 gene team
  • 83 professionals: Exchange you directly back into the 83 gods and 84 gene team
  • 84 professionals: exchange again in the 84 GEST team
  • 85 professionals: Exchange in the 85+-x3 professional professional SBCs for defense, midfield or storm
  • 86 professionals: 1x 86 professional you exchange into the 84 GEST team
  • 87+professionals: keep you or conclude player SBCs
  • TOTW professional: You swap directly into the 83 gods team

    • Danger: You may have to buy 2 or 3 players for the next upgrade pack. However, only the TOTW professionals that you have to shop for a market price of at least 21,500 coins (as of 29 January, 10:00 a.m.) are really expensive if you do not have them in the club.

    To save coins and get other packs cheaply, you can look at our tips for more packs for the Toty on MeinMMO.

    Theory says that after 707 packs, the Toty chance is 99 %

    The chance of a Toty is so low: In principle, there is unfortunately no guarantee that the upgrade packs will also lead to a Toty repeatedly. However, through the constant repetition of the SBC, you theoretically increase your chances of a “Team of the Year” player.

    With this approach, Reddit-user has created a mathematical equation that is based on the cumulative probability. In the specific case of the upgrade packs, he examined how the chances rise after opening a pack with regard to a toty.

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    What does the theory say? With the help of the packing probabilities that the fan service page offers Futnext, Robkrage has set up an equation. After this formula, you have to pull about 700 packs to achieve a high probability (99 %) for a Toty.

    We checked on MeinMMO whether the assumed probabilities that Robkrage and Futnext use for a single pack. In fact, a comparable shop pack that “deluxe live train pack”, which contains 30 rare 82+gold professionals, offers similar opportunities. According to the EA, the specified Toty probabilities for this pack are included:

  • 3.4 % for a Toty-Honoring Certion
  • 1.2 % for a Toty icon
  • Less than 1 % for a Toty

    • Danger: The statements are understandable from a mathematical point of view, but you should be aware that it can certainly happen that you could not pull a toty or even at smaller quantities. Author Robkrage also illustrates this in a comment under his thread:

  • “Suppose person 1 has 10 82 × 20 upgrade packs and person 2 has 50 82 × 20 upgrade packs. Which person has the greater chance of a Toty? The answer is person 2, but that does not mean that there could not be a scenario in which person 1 grabs three Totys and person 2 none. In the end, everything is based on happiness. What I showed is only the probability of X Packs. ”(Via Reddit)

    • All available Toyys and their upgrades can be found here: 45 Totys in the packs now – all players, upgrades and leaks

    With a little patience and a good portion of luck, you may be able to welcome a Toty card in your rows at the end of the “Team of the Year” in FC 25. Or you choose the easier way and just create your own Toty professional: In EA FC 25 you can secure a Toty Evo Star for free-that’s how it works

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