Last week of campaigning in France before the first round of the legislative elections which take place on Sunday 12 June. In the home stretch, the tone rises between the camp of President Emmanuel Macron – who hopes for a majority to govern – and the camp of Nupes, the union of the left, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon – who wants to transform the ballot in the third round of the presidential election.
To a week of votingfinally the start of the electoral campaign, with an interview with President Emmanuel Macron to the regional press. School, health, pensions, institutions: the Head of State has detailed the main lines of his second term and enters the political arena to bring iron against his opponents.
Barely unveiled, his idea of create a National Council for Refoundationin order to launch its future reforms, arouses the taunts of its adversaries: “ The president doesn’t know what to do ! “says Jean-Luc Mélenchon in particular.
A cohabitation?
The leader of the Insoumis – who dreams of imposing cohabitation on Emmanuel Macron – throws his last forces into the battle and multiplies on the ground to support the candidates of the union of the left. The mission he has given himself is difficult: to remobilize his camp, disappointed by his third place in the presidential election.
The general mobilization is also the watchword of the presidential camp, while a shiver runs through its ranks: what if these legislative elections were not just a formality? And if his majority in the Assembly was finally tighter than expected? The macronists are worried, which explains the virulence of their attacks this weekend against Jean-Luc Mélenchon, accused of being ” communitarian ” and ” authoritarian “.
Because ” the worry is there “At the macronists, explained Sunday evening June 5 on LCI the pollster Frédéric Dabi, of Ifop. This because ” there are assumptions that would give relative majorities to Emmanuel Macron’s camp, below the absolute majority of 289 seats.
It would be ahead of the Nupes (LFI, EELV, PS, PC) around Jean-Luc Mélenchon which could reach between 170 and 205 seats, ahead of LR (35 to 55 deputies) and the RN (20 to 50 seats), according to Ifop . But ” the scenario of an absolute majority for the Nupes is for the moment excluded “, according to Frédéric Dabi.
Towards a 55% abstention?
But, despite the efforts of the various political sides, the campaign remains sluggish, and this at a level “ unpublished “, according to political scientist Eddy Vautrin-Dumaine. The director of studies at Kantar Public France judges that abstention could exceed the level of 2017, already ” a record, with one in two French people who did not travel “.
The abstention of young people and the working classes could benefit the current majority, which relies on an older and more affluent electorate than that of the RN or the Nupes, believe specialists.
“It is not impossible that we have 55% abstention in the first round of the legislative elections”, according to political scientist Eddy Vautrin-Dumaine.
The pro-Macron candidates arrived in the majority on Sunday in the votes of French people living abroad in the first round of the legislative elections, with the notable exception of Manuel Valls, eliminated in the first round, overtaken by the candidate of Nupes, l left-wing alliance which performed well.
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