The Emirati president of the 28th UN climate conference proposed, this Monday, December 11, a draft agreement with a view to reducing the place of fossil fuels in the world. It was immediately rejected by countries waiting for a clear call to “exit” the oil, gas and coal responsible for global warming.
“We have made progress but we still have a lot to do,” admitted Sultan Al Jaber, implicitly recognizing that the text would be further amended in the coming hours, before the supposed end of COP 28 on Tuesday. “We have a text and we must agree. The time for discussions is coming to an end and now is not the time for hesitation. It is time to decide,” he said.
It must be said that the first compromise gave rise to a great deal of criticism against it. French Energy Transition Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher said the text was “insufficient” and a “disappointment”, calling for “do better” on fossil fuels. An opinion shared by the European Union, which also described this first draft as “insufficient”. The United States called for it to be “substantially” strengthened.
For their part, NGOs and experts denounced a project that was not ambitious enough, listing too many vague energy options without explicitly favoring the end of fossil fuels. But, as a source at the Emirati presidency of COP28 indicated: “It’s a movement of openness, we will have to build on that.” Sultan Al Jaber has been meeting, since 6 p.m. (Paris time), behind closed doors, the heads of delegations of the 194 countries and the EU signatories to the Paris Agreement.
No “exit” from fossil fuels
Within the 21 pages of this draft agreement, we find in particular in the most scrutinized paragraph: that on the recognition of the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, calling on the parties to take actions which “could ” include several elements. A use of the conditional which, in itself, weakens the sequence.
It is certainly mentioned the “reduction of both the consumption and production of fossil fuels in a fair, orderly and equitable manner, so as to reach net zero (carbon neutrality, Editor’s note) by, before or around 2050, as recommended by science. But the text no longer mentions the word “exit” from fossil fuels. And it now includes all kinds of wishes from the camp of oil producing or exporting countries, such as the nascent carbon capture and storage technologies, required by them to continue pumping hydrocarbons. A “shopping list”, experts quipped.
Limitations on coal
On coal, the text calls for “rapidly reducing coal without carbon capture”, but also for “limits on permits granted for new coal-fired power plants” without CO2 capture, which in reality constitutes a step backwards compared to at the Glasgow COP two years ago, where no green light was given for new power plants.
A paragraph also cites “low-emission” technologies including nuclear, carbon capture and “low-carbon” hydrogen, “in order to improve efforts to replace non-captured fossil fuels in energy systems”.
This wording echoes the Sunnylands Joint Declaration signed in November by China and the United States. The world’s two leading emitters of greenhouse gases (41% between them) avoided talking about an “exit” from fossil fuels but stressed that renewable energies (solar, wind, etc.) should gradually replace them.
“Our voices are not heard”
This text sparked strong reactions from experts and NGOs. “A list of critical actions has become a menu to pick from,” said Dave Jones of the Ember Energy Expert Center. A “choose your adventure” text, according to Jean Su, of the Center for Biological Diversity.
“Our voices are not heard” and the project is “totally insufficient” on the issue of fossil fuels, denounced Samoan Minister Cedric Schuster, who chairs the alliance of small island states (Aosis). The text “represents a significant regression compared to previous versions,” said Harjeet Singh, head of global policy strategy at CAN, which represents more than a thousand associations and participates in the COP’s work as an observer. “Staggeringly, it no longer includes an explicit formula on phasing out fossil fuels.”
A source among European negotiators, contacted by AFP, judges that this text “is far from what the climate needs today. One thing is clear: we will not achieve it by Tuesday 11 a.m.” , the time at which Sultan Al Jaber wanted to close COP 28. Once again, the annual high mass on the climate should go well into overtime.