A ship belonging to the Russian shadow fleet is suspected of causing cable damage on Christmas Day in the Gulf of Finland.
This story tells what a shadow fleet is, what Russia uses its shadow fleet for, and what threats it poses.
What is a shadow fleet?
The shadow fleet refers to ships that some countries use to circumvent international sanctions and restrictions on oil trade. In addition to Russia, Iran and Venezuela have resorted to the shadow fleet.
In practice, the shadow fleet is an arrangement based on tampering with ownership, routes and documents.
Russia put the shadow fleet into use in December 2022, when Western countries put a price ceiling on its oil. The $60 per barrel price ceiling is one of the measures the West has imposed on Russia after it attacked Ukraine with full force in February 2022. The effort was to reduce Russia’s oil revenues.
However, Russia has managed to circumvent the sanctions and sell oil at prices higher than the price ceiling with the help of its shadow fleet.
EPP Group of the European Parliament has evaluatedthat revenues from crude oil bring at least 12 billion dollars to Russia’s coffers every month.
Russia has shown next year about 145 billion dollars from its budget to military spending. Russia could therefore cover almost all of its annual military expenses with the oil revenues produced by its shadow fleet alone.
How big is Russia’s shadow fleet?
Russia’s shadow fleet has grown significantly this year. The amount of oil carried by the shadow fleet increased from June 2023 to June 2024 from 2.4 million barrels per day to more than 4.1 million barrels per day, the British Financial Times – newspaper reported in October.
According to a report published by the Crea research institute in June, 67 percent of the oil and oil products transported by sea in Russia were transported by shadow tankers.
There is no exact information on the number of ships. Specialized in energy market analysis Vortexa company estimates last year that at least 1,089 tankers were carrying Russian oil in 2023.
Harvard University researcher specializing in Russian oil transport Craig Kennedy evaluate on the other hand, in August, that in 2023, around 300 ships of the Russian shadow fleet were moving in European waters every month.
The Baltic Sea is central to Russia’s oil exports. According to Svenska ‘s report, almost 300 shadow fleet vessels landed in the Russian Gulf of Finland ports of Primorski (Koivisto) and Ust-Luga (Laukaansuu) in January-May 2024. Many of the vessels visited the ports several times.
In the video below, you can see how busy the traffic of ships in poor condition was during one day in July in the Gulf of Finland last summer:
– Almost half of Russia’s crude oil and oil products have been exported from Russia’s Baltic Sea ports, Petras Katinas said in an interview with Svenska earlier this fall.
Katinas, an analyst, works at the Crea research institute, which monitors Russian oil exports.
What happens on the Arctic Ocean route?
Throughout the Ukrainian war, Russian crude oil and natural gas have been transported to the world also in the Arctic Ocean. The sea route from Siberia to the world takes you along the Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea.
On their way from or to Russia, 12 Norwegian tankers and cargo ships sailed in Norway’s exclusive economic zone on Friday. Fiskinfo.no according to the site. The website is under the Norwegian Ministry of Economy and Fisheries. According to the website, four of the vessels were LNG tankers, four crude oil tankers and four dry cargo containers.
The ships traveling on Friday were sailing under the flags of Liberia, Panama, Bahamas, Gabon, China, Antigua and Barbuda, Sierra Leone and Malta. Some of the ships had left Russia from Murmansk or Sabetta. There are ports of destination in Egypt, Turkey, Singapore and Brazil.
For example, the LNG tanker Eduard Toll, sailing under the flag of the Bahamas, was on its way from the EU region to Russia. It sails from the port of Montoir-de-Bretagne in France to Sabetta, one of Russia’s largest natural gas ports, on the Yamal Peninsula.
Why are the ships of the Russian shadow fleet dangerous?
The Russian shadow fleet mainly consists of old and poorly maintained tankers. Ships are average 18 years old, i.e. already old enough to be oil tankers.
The flag arrangement is an essential part of the operation of the shadow fleet, as it enables the encryption of the ship’s owner information.
Many of the vessels of the Russian shadow fleet are insufficiently insured. In this way, ship owners try to reduce costs.
In addition, ships try to evade checks and surveillance by avoiding popular routes and choosing unobtrusive but difficult routes.
Greenpeace According to the Russian shadow fleet, it is like a ticking time bomb. The organization believes that it will cause an environmental disaster in the Baltic Sea before long. Also, Harvard University’s Kennedy by The poor tankers used by the Russian shadow fleet increase the risk of an environmental disaster.
Shadow fleet ships also undermine maritime security because they tend to move in secret and often do not reveal their location.
Russian shadow fleet ships passing through the Baltic Sea turn off the tanker identification system and use a special program to hide their route or location. The issue was resolved by a Russian journalist specializing in investigative journalism Fresh.
How have attempts been made to prevent the activities of the shadow fleet?
The European Union has tried to fight Russia’s shadow fleet with the help of sanctions.
The EU has added several oil tankers to the sanctions list. By December, the EU’s “blacklist” had a total of 79 ships that participated in Russian oil transport.
As a result of the sanctions, ships cannot enter EU ports or offer them port services.
Prime minister Petteri Orpo said at a press conference on Thursday that more means are needed to stop shadow fleets.
Secretary General of NATO Mark Rutte announced that the military alliance NATO will increase its presence in the Baltic Sea.
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