The first blow to “Kamala mania” could come from the Middle East. A regional flare-up, following the assassination in Tehran at the end of July of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh, blamed on Israel, would come at the worst possible time for the Democratic candidate in the race for the White House. “The last thing I want to do is [Joe] Biden or [Kamala] “All Harris needs three months before the election is to be drawn into a major and complicated regional escalation and fail to manage it,” commented analyst and former US diplomat Aaron David Miller on X.
Within the party, a generalization of the conflict would revive all the tensions linked to the ultra-sensitive Palestinian question, especially among young Democrats, just before the Democratic convention (from August 19 to 22). “Kamala Harris would have to find a way to satisfy both the anti-Israel base (a minority but very visible and ready to fight) and the political and military heavyweights who will want to support the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu. A near-impossible mission!” emphasizes historian Françoise Coste.
An expansion of the war to new actors – potentially Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah – could also draw the United States further into the crisis shaking the region, where its military bases in Iraq and Syria could be targeted. Donald Trump would not fail to castigate the Biden administration’s inability to maintain peace, while trumpeting as usual that he would have avoided chaos.