There is more and more evidence that the Turkish parliament will be dominated by Erdogan’s side and there is a risk that Sweden’s NATO membership will be postponed further.
– It is a major complication for Sweden’s NATO application, says Gunilla Herolf, NATO researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute.
Sweden’s NATO application is in Turkey’s hands and it will probably do so for a while. Even if the more pro-Western candidate Kemal Kiliçdaroglu were to win the second round of elections, he will have to rule the country with an Erdogan majority in parliament.
A ratification of Sweden’s NATO application must be voted through in parliament, and since the Erdogan side has a majority, it may take time.
– We’ll see how it goes, but it’s not such good news, says Gunilla Herolf.
Not sure about Vilnius
The Swedish government’s hope has been that Sweden would be a NATO member at the summit in Lithuania in July. It is something that is becoming increasingly unlikely, says Herolf.
– I think that Sweden will join NATO, but maybe not at the meeting in Vilnius.
The postponed ratification could lead to increased irritation at NATO.
– It was hoped that the Vilnius meeting would be a celebration of Swedish and Finnish membership, says and continues:
– At the same time, it must be remembered that Turkey is an important country for NATO. You cannot push Turkey so hard that they turn even more to Russia.