(Tiper Stock Exchange) – Italian families and businesses will pay more taxes and contributions than expected in the next two years and in 2024 the proceeds will break through the 1,000 billion euro wall for the first time. This is what emerges from a Fact Checking operation on the DEF carried out by Study Center of Unimpresaaccording to which the “true” tax burdenmeasured as the ratio between the total revenue in the state treasury and the gross domestic product, it will touch 49% in 2023 and it will come closer to 48% in 2024.
These are higher levels than those included in the latest Economic and Financial Document (DEF), which indicate percentages of 43.3% and 43% respectively.
There scissors – explains Unimpresa – was born in the different method of calculation: the DEF excludes from the count a portion of the revenue cataloged under the item “other current revenue” (for 88.1 billion), considering a reduced amount of tax revenue compared to the real one – 986.1 billion in 2023 and 1,002.8 billion in 2024 – and thus obtaining a final result in terms percentages less “painful” for taxpayers.
“Apart from the percentages, which somehow do not surprise small Italian entrepreneurs who periodically pay money to the financial administration and therefore know the real numbers, it is necessary that the government, even going beyond what has just been announced, seriously embarks on a path aimed at reduction of the tax burden”, says the president of Unimpresa, Giovanna Ferrara.
The same argument applies for the following yearswith a increasingly high “true” tax burden of the official data: 47.6% in 2025 (42.9% in DEF) e 47.1% in 2026 against the 42.7% “declared” by the government. In 2025 and 2024, total revenue will amount to 1,035.3 billion and 1,055.1 billion, thus remaining permanently above the threshold of one trillion.
Overall, between 2023 and 2026 will register a increase in revenue of 123.6 billion compared to 2022 (+13.3%). State spending is also destined to rise in the next three years, when 1,076.8 billion, 1,101.4 billion and 1,111.9 billion will come out of the state coffers. In total, between 2023 and 2026, compared to 2022, there will be additional outflows of 28.5 billion (+2.6%). Current spending will weigh on growthfor which not enough has ever been done in terms of “scissors” “, intended to grow by 76.2 billion (+8.1%), while the public investments they will shrink by 47.6 billion (-32.9%).
As for the other “key numbers” of the Economic and Financial Document, we observe an increase in spending on pensions as a percentage of GDP and also in absolute terms: from 15.6% in 2022 (296.9 billion), it goes to 15.8% this year (317.9 billion), to 16.2% in 2024 (340.7 billion) and 16.1% in both 2025 (350.9 billion) and 2026 (361.8 billion ). Instead, a hand will be spent on healthcare: from 6.9% in 2022 (131.1 billion) to 6.7% this year (136.1 billion), to 6.3% in 2024 (132.1 billion) 7 billion) and 6.2% both in 2025 (135.1 billion) and in 2026 (138.3 billion). Spending on the salaries of public employees is also down, which in 2022, with 186.9 billion, was “worth” 9.8% of GDP, a percentage that this year will drop to 9.4% (189.2 billion) , in 2024 at 8.9% (186.2 billion), in 2025 at 8.6% (197.3 billion) and in 2026 at 8.4% (187.7 billion).