While the Prime Minister could announce the composition of his government “over the weekend”, the list of ministers would be almost finalized on rue de Varenne.
The essentials
- François Bayrou “didn’t make the phone calls, but he knows who is up for it”, guaranteed this Friday a minister approached Politico. If the Prime Minister has not leaked any information regarding his future government, he would already have a very clear idea of his casting.
- Several names of potential ministers are put forward for the Bayrou government: some outgoing like Bruno Retailleau, Rachida Dati, Sébastien Lecornu or Jean-Noël Barrot, others are former ministers like Élisabeth Borne, Gérald Darmanin, but also Pierre Moscovici and François Rebsamen.
- A “crazy” list also reached the ears of Politico this weekend. She proposed Thierry Breton to the Ministry of the Economy, Pierre Moscovici to Foreign Affairs and even Patrick Mignola to the Civil Service. In fact, it is difficult to qualify the listing as truly serious.
- As a reminder, Thursday December 19, François Bayrou spoke with the presidents of the two chambers as well as the heads of parliamentary groups and party leaders. A meeting during which he proposed to the participants to return to the government, according to information from AFP. Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure and Gabriel Attal were there.
- In terms of timing, the tenant of Matignon is counting on an announcement “during the weekend”, as indicated on France 2 last night. If the left remains closed to participation in government, even in the ranks of the PS, the situation is different among Les Républicains. Laurent Wauquiez reportedly declared to the deputies of his group that he had observed “conditions met” to participate. He still asks for “clarifications”.
Live
09:49 – Bayrou “didn’t make the calls, but he knows who’s up for it”
François Bayrou maintains the vagueness. However, does the mayor of Pau already have a clear idea of his executive, a list, which he wishes to announce “during the weekend” as indicated on France 2 yesterday? It’s entirely possible, and this is what Politico confirmed this Friday, December 20. The tenant of Matignon “didn’t make the phone calls, but he knows who is up for it”, a minister expected to join the new government team told the media.
Gérald Darmanin, for example, is one of the ex-Macronist tenors who could make a comeback. A less conventional list and described as “eccentric” by Politico predicted a slightly more surprising casting. She proposed Thierry Breton to the Economy, Pierre Moscivici to the Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs and finally the former centrist deputy Patrick Mignola, in charge of the Civil Service.
09:36 – Retailleau and Barrot maintained?
Two ministers have a good chance of being reappointed. According to MoDem spokesperson Bruno Millienne, at the microphone of TF1 this Friday morning, two former ministers of the Barnier government have significant chances of retaining their place. They are Bruno Retailleau (Interior) and Jean-Noël Barrot (Foreign Affairs). “These are my very probable wishes (…) I think that Bruno Retailleau and that Jean-Noël Barrot will stay. I would like Jean-Noël Barrot to stay at the Quai d’Orsay because he has done a good job”, said declared the centrist.
12/19/24 – 11:49 p.m. – Bruno Retailleau, “a reason for censorship in itself”, believes Marine Tondelier
END OF LIVE – While François Bayrou said, Thursday evening on France 2, that he was in favor of maintaining Bruno Retailleau in his government, the boss of environmentalists did not hide her aversion to the idea. “Bruno Retailleau is a reason for censorship in his own right,” tackled Marine Tondelier on the set of BFMTV.
12/19/24 – 11:24 p.m. – Green light from the Republicans to participate in government? Wauquiez requests a new exchange with Bayrou
According to information from BFMTV, Laurent Wauquiez would have estimated before the Les Républicains deputies that he had noted “conditions met” for participation in the government. However, he reportedly announced that he wanted to request a new meeting with François Bayrou in order to “have the clarifications that we are still asking for”.
12/19/24 – 10:55 p.m. – “Something tells me this isn’t going to work well…”
After the interview with François Bayrou in the show The Event on France 2 Thursday evening, the vice-president of the National Assembly and environmentalist deputy for Isère, Jérémie Iordanoff, said he learned from this interview “that the President of the Republic remained master of the game, that he wanted to take Retailleau and Wauquiez and that he would discuss the program after the announcement of the composition of the government”. And commenting: “Something tells me this isn’t going to work well…”
19/12/24 – 22:22 – Mélenchon attacks the PS which “creates disgust and discouragement by seeking compromises”
“The Socialist Party is creating disgust and discouragement by seeking compromises with Mr. Macron,” regretted Jean-Luc Mélenchon Thursday evening during a conference entitled “The political moment.” “There is only one thing to say: there is no political compromise possible as long as there is no social compromise proposed, as long as they have not given up on retirement 64 years,” he estimated.
To go further
The appointment of a new Prime Minister will not change anything, even if a new stage is launched. The political crisis that France has been going through since this summer is not ready to end. The resignation of Michel Barnier, imposed by the censorship of the government voted by the deputies on December 4, came to remind those who had forgotten that the executive has always been very fragile. Emmanuel Macron’s choice to appoint Michel Barnier to Matignon, after a failed dissolution, gave the keys to the National Rally. Without the implicit support or let it happen of the RN, the next government will not last much longer. The government is facing political and arithmetic reality: its line is very much in the minority in the National Assembly, the deputies of the opposition parties are more numerous than those of the “common base” parties.
Emmanuel Macron had also prepared for the fall of Michel Barnier’s government at the end of November, based on numerous indiscretions. He had started testing the names of potential replacements even before the censorship. The choice of François Bayrou ultimately gives the signal that he remains on the same line as before: for him, it is the ability to ensure stability that is important, by working with the parties of the “republican arc”, without suffer the censorship of others. In doing so, Emmanuel Macron reconnects with this tacit deal with Marine Le Pen which led to the fall of the Barnier government.
A “disinterested and pluralist” Bayrou government?
François Bayrou has a precise idea of the strategy that seems to him to be the right one in this period of political crisis with a National Assembly lacking a sufficient majority to govern alone. The centrist has been pleading for months for the formation of a “disinterested, pluralist and coherent government” made up of “personalities of character”, without specifying the political sides which could or could not take part in it, as Le Figaro recalls. A vision that matches that proposed by Emmanuel Macron.
François Bayrou’s government should unsurprisingly include members of the MoDem and Macronists, but it could also open up to the right and the left on the condition that these forces agree to join the executive. Something difficult to imagine for the left: the PS and the Ecologists refused to participate in a government led by a Prime Minister foreign to the left. On the other hand, the appointment of right-wing ministers, or even the maintenance of certain resigned LR ministers such as Sébastien Lecornu or Bruno Retailleau, are mentioned. The LR party did not object to joining a Bayrou government, but refused to participate in an executive in which socialists would be appointed. During his handover speech with Michel Barnier last Friday on the steps of Matignon, the new Prime Minister did not give the slightest clue about the composition of his government. We will still have to wait. Maybe before Christmas? A schedule “difficult to keep”, according to a relative of the new tenant of Matignon, as indicated in the columns of Politico, Monday December 16, 2024.