The projections for the second round of the legislative elections show an increasingly clear trend: the RN seems to be struggling to win an absolute majority following the results. And therefore to govern the country.
Who will be able to govern France in a few days? This is what is at stake in the results of the second round of these legislative elections: if the National Rally and its allies obtain enough victories in the constituencies to obtain an absolute majority in the Assembly, then they will be able to lead the country.
A few days before the second round of these legislative elections, the main polling institutes have established projections in terms of the number of elected seats by political bloc. The pollster Ifop Fiducial for Sud Radio and Le Figaro gives the National Rally as being able to form the first group of deputies, but without an absolute majority (set at 289 seats). The withdrawals made at the beginning of the week have even quite significantly changed the estimates of the results in favor of the left of the former presidential majority. The RN and its allies would only have between 210 and 240 seats, the left between 170 and 200 seats, the former presidential majority between 95 and 125 seats and LR between 25 and 45 seats.
A work carried out by the media Le Grand Continent is more precise this Thursday, even if the reliability of such an estimate is necessarily less strong than a poll on voting intentions, simpler. According to these figures on the results of the 2nd round of legislative elections, the chances of the National Rally to have an absolute majority are revised downwards. The methodology used is different, constructed from the poll matrices of Cluster 17 and the probable vote reports in each constituency, it gives the following results in the 2nd round of the legislative elections:
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19:03 – Between 15 and 27 seats for various parties in the Assembly
Before the first round, ultimately very few could hope to have a place in the National Assembly. Following the first results, the “clan” of the various also seems to have regained some color, like the presidential camp, since the latest Ifop-Fiducial poll mentions between 15 and 27 deputies, against an average of less than ten before the first round.
18:31 – Fewer seats for the RN, but also for Les Républicains (without Ciotti)?
The survey carried out for LCI, Sud Radio and Le Figaro predicts that Les Républicains, without Éric Ciotti, could win between 25 and 45 seats on Sunday at the end of the second round of the legislative elections. This is five fewer deputies compared to what was predicted at the end of the first round (between 30 and 50).
18:07 – Towards better results than Nupes for the New Popular Front?
While in 2022 the left-wing parties gathered under the Nupes banner won 149 seats, the latest Ifop-Fiducial poll for Sud Radio, LCI and Le Figaro considers that the The New Popular Front could win between 170 and 200 deputies on Sunday evening. However, the data does not say what the balance of power would be between the different parties of the left.
17:51 – After the establishment of the Republican front, the presidential camp seems to be regaining its colours
This is in any case what emerges from the latest daily Ifop-Fiducial survey for Le FigaroLCI and Sud Radio. The poll estimates that the presidential camp could obtain between 95 and 125 deputies following the results of the legislative elections next Sunday, which is 35 more than the estimates of June 30. With only 95 deputies, the Macronist camp would obtain less than half the number of seats it had before the dissolution.
17:28 – The RN “has far fewer reservations to oppose to the left or the center”
Nearby Figarothe director of the news and politics division of Ifop, François Kraus, analyses the latest poll according to which the RN is gradually moving away from the absolute majority on Sunday. “We do not see a resurgence of the RN, as if it had already made a full house in the first round,” he explains. And notes: “It has much fewer reservations to oppose to the left or the center.”
17:05 – The National Rally is moving away from an absolute majority
According to the Ifop-Fiducial survey for Le FigaroLCI and Sud Radio, the National Rally seems weakened by the “republican front” that has formed in more than 200 constituencies. Its hopes of obtaining an absolute majority are fading. Despite its very good results in the first round of the legislative elections, it could only win between 210 and 240 seats, far from the 240 to 270 seats envisaged in the surveys of the first round.
1:50 p.m. – The RN, more capable of finding solutions for the country than LFI
Between the RN and LFI, 39% of respondents in the latest Ifop-Fiducial poll believe that the National Rally is more capable of finding solutions for the country than La France Insoumise. 41% of respondents, however, believe that neither party is capable of doing so.
13:12 – Gabriel Attal better Prime Minister than Jordan Bardella?
According to an Ifop-Fiducial poll, 48% of those surveyed consider that Gabriel Attal would make a good Prime Minister after the second round and gains 7 points compared to last week. He is positioned ahead Jordan Bardella (45%).
12:33 – The RN perceived as closer to the people
The RN is perceived as being much closer to the people (43%) than LFI (25%). The RN would also be, for 40% of those surveyed, more attached to democratic values than LFI (24%), according to an Ifop-Fiducial survey.
12:04 – One in two voters wants the National Rally to obtain an absolute majority in the Assembly
According to a new Ifop-Fiducial poll for Sud Radio, LCI and Le Figaro, one in two voters (50%) want the National Rally to obtain an absolute majority in the National Assembly at the end of the second round. A figure that falls to 48% for voters of the Les Républicains party and 26% for voters of Ensemble.
10:56 – What methodology?
To make projections, IFOP relies on results from polling stations considered representative. “These local results, which form an “overall report”, are scrutinized by an algorithm that takes into account, in particular, the results of previous legislative elections”, explains Le Figaro. “It is very random and the methodology is quite fragile as long as we do not have the final results and the final offer in each constituency”, explains François Kraus, director of the Politics and Current Affairs division at Ifop.
09:59 – “We must be very careful and modest about seat projections,” warns IFOP
“We must be very careful and modest about seat projections,” warns Jérôme Fouquet, political scientist and director of the Opinion department of IFOP, on France Info. According to him, we must among other things “see how the voters of the eliminated candidates or those who have withdrawn will turn out.”
08:50 – Ensemble voters fear the RN more than the NFP for the situation of France in the future
81% of Together for the Republic voters believe that the situation in France would deteriorate in the years to come if the RN obtained an absolute majority, compared to 79% in the event of a victory by the New Popular Front.
08:14 – 53% of respondents believe that their personal situation would deteriorate if the NFP obtained an absolute majority
53% of those surveyed believe that their personal situation would deteriorate if the New Popular Front obtained an absolute majority, compared to 44% if the National Rally obtained it.
07:51 – Why will voters vote on Sunday?
According to a Toluna Harris Interactive poll for RTL, M6 and Challenges, when asked “why are you going to vote on Sunday?”, voters first responded that they were opposed to the new Popular Front and Emmanuel Macron and only then that they were opposed to the National Rally.
What is the projection in terms of the number of seats in the second round of the legislative elections according to the institutes?
According to Toluna Harris Interactive for RTL, M6 and Challenges, the RN could benefit from 190 to 220 seats in the National Assembly following the results of the second round. The New Popular Front would obtain between 159 and 183 seats. In third place, the presidential majority and its allies (MoDem and Horizons) would obtain between 110 and 135 seats. The Republicans who have not rallied to Éric Ciotti can hope for between 30 and 50 seats on the evening of the second round, on July 7.
The latest Ifop-Fiducial poll for Le Figaro and Sud Radio on July 4 presents a slightly different projection for the National Assembly. According to the institute, no absolute majority should emerge from the ballot boxes, the National Rally would obtain between 210 and 240 elected representatives. The New Popular Front could hope for between 170 and 200 seats, while Macronie, in clear decline, would only retain 95 to 125 seats in Parliament. The Republicans hope for between 25 and 45 deputies.
According to estimates by Opinion Way for CNews, Europe 1 and the JDD, the RN would obtain between 250 and 300 seats in the National Assembly following the legislative results, an absolute majority is therefore conceivable for this polling institute. The New Popular Front had 130 to 170 elected representatives in the chamber, while Macronie and allies had between 65 and 105. The Republicans (excluding RN allies related to Éric Ciotti) could benefit from 30 to 50 seats.
For the Elabe polling institute, the dynamic is quite different, as at Opinion Way. Indeed, an absolute majority is envisaged for the RN with 250 to 300 elected representatives according to its projections. The New Popular Front would be the second political force in the chamber with 115 to 145 elected representatives. Macronie would arrive on the third step of the podium (with its allies, MoDem and Horizons) with 90 to 120 seats against 250 outgoing members. Another result: the LR would benefit from 30 to 50 elected representatives.
In total, during this second round, 306 triangular races were initially composed, there should only be a few hundred left after the withdrawals to block the extreme right. If these matches make the outcome of the vote more uncertain, Jean-Luc Mlenchon (NFP) and Gabriel Attal (presidential majority) have already called on their respective candidates who came in 3rd position in the first round to withdraw, facing a so-called “republican” candidate in the second round to try to block the Rally and not divide the votes against the party led by Jordan Bardella.