LEGISLATIVE SURVEY. Will Emmanuel Macron obtain a majority in the Assembly? Will the opposition impose a cohabitation on him by winning the legislative elections? Update on the polls.
[Mise à jour le 17 mai à 17h12] The first round of legislative elections will take place in less than a month. If the camp of the President of the Republic would like to win a new absolute majority, the United Left (Nupes) hopes to impose cohabitation on it. The RN aims to be the first opposition force, while the Republicans hope to save the furniture. Eric Zemmour’s party, finally, would like to enter the hemicycle. According to the first wave of the Harris Interactive weekly barometer for LCI, published on Wednesday May 11, the alliance of the parties LREM, Modem and Horizons would be the big winner of these legislative elections with 300 to 350 seats. The Nupes would be the first opposition force, as wanted by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, with 105 to 168 seats of deputies. For its part, the National Rally would get between 52 and 80, and the Republicans and their allies between 30 and 48.
What does the latest poll say about voting intentions for the 2022 legislative elections?
The latest survey from the Cluster17 institute, published on Friday May 13, places the left alliance, Nupes, at the top of the intentions of the first round of legislative elections. According to this poll, 31% of French people questioned want to support a Nupes candidate in the first round of the legislative elections, 27% a candidate invested by the presidential majority (“Together”), 19% a candidate supported by the RN, 9.5% a candidate invested by the Republicans, and 5.5% a Reconquest candidate.
What are the poll projections for the 2022 legislative elections?
According to the latest Harris Interactive poll, dated May 11, the coalition put in place to allow Emmanuel Macron to retain the majority in the National Assembly would win the legislative elections. LREM, the MoDem, Horizons, as well as the other allied parties would win between 300 and 350 seats. Note that the polling institute is betting on a push from the left at the Bourbon Palace which, thanks to the Nupes coalition, could have 105 to 168 deputies. The Republicans and the UDI would limit the damage with 30 to 48 elected officials, while the RN would have between 52 and 80.
*The number of seats corresponds to the average between the low projection and the high projection made by the polling institute.
What do the polls say about Macron’s wishes for victory or defeat in the legislative elections?
Before any screening, questions had been asked about the legislative elections to voters, on the sidelines of the second round of the presidential election. Several institutes have tried to gauge the “wishes for victory” or “defeat” for Emmanuel Macron in these legislative elections, but also the wishes for “majority” or even “cohabitation” for the Head of State. In an Ifop poll published on the evening of the second round of the presidential election for TF1, LCI, Paris Match and Sud Radio, voters from a sample of 4,827 people registered on the electoral lists thus indicated 68% that they wanted ‘at the end of the next legislative elections, “the oppositions represent the majority of deputies in the National Assembly and impose cohabitation on Emmanuel Macron”. 32% “only” therefore want “Emmanuel Macron to benefit from a majority of deputies in the National Assembly”.
In detail, supporters of cohabitation are unsurprisingly the most numerous among voters in the first round of Marine Le Pen (91%), ahead of voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (89%), Eric Zemmour (88 %), Yannick Jadot (68%) and Valérie Pécresse (67%). They are all the same 17% among the voters of Emmanuel Macron himself (read the complete study on the Ifop website).
A defeat of Emanuel Macron or a cohabitation mostly desired
Two other surveys also lean very clearly towards cohabitation for this second five-year term of Emmanuel Macron. The first one, conducted by OpinionWay for Cnews and Europe 1, indicates that 63% of those polled prefer that the Head of State “does not have a majority and is forced to cohabit”, against 35% who want him “to have a majority in the National Assembly and can pursue its policy”. The detailed figures corroborate the Ifop survey: 95% of voters for Marine Le Pen, 84% of those for Eric Zemmour, 77% of voters for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 63% of those for Yannick Jadot and 55% of those of Valérie Pécresse prefer to see Macron fail in the June legislative elections. OpinionWay also surveyed its sample on the desired cohabitation Prime Minister: 46% would favor Marine Le Pen and 44% for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, while only 8% would prefer Valérie Pécresse.
Last survey of its kind published on the evening of the second round: a Ipsos Sopra-Steria survey for France TV, Le Parisien and Radio France, is more measured. But the majority (56%) of respondents also answer that they want Emmanuel Macron to lose the legislative elections, against 24% who prefer a victory to “avoid cohabitation” and 20% who want it “to apply his program”. The trends remain the same, with a few deviations, with 87% of Marine Le Pen voters in favor of a defeat, 84% of those of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 80% of those of Eric Zemmour, 49% of those of Yannick Jadot and 40% of those of Valérie Pécresse. Note: 57% of those questioned say they are in favor, during the legislative elections, of an alliance of left-wing parties (LFI, EELV, PCF and PS), including 93% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters and 85% from those of Yannick Jadot.
Wishes also expressed by political party in the legislative elections
The same poll by Ipsos Sopra Steria also asks the question of the legislative elections in a slightly different way by asking respondents if they want parties to emerge “strengthened” or “weakened” from the elections. A question that is still far from a voting intention, but comes slightly closer. In this little game, 39% say they want to see La France Insoumise “reinforced” after the election next June against 29% who would prefer it “weakened”, a figure comparable to that of the National Rally with 38% (against 36% ).
Behind, the balance is systematically reversed: 36% want to see Europe-Ecologie Les Verts “weakened” (against 29% “strengthened”), 38% for the Republic on the Move (against 26%), 40% for the Communist Party (against 16%), 44% for the Reconquest party! of Eric Zemmour (against 20%) and finally 47% for the Socialist Party (against 18%) tied with Les Républicains (against 15% “reinforced”). Note that a quarter to a third of respondents answer “neither one nor the other” the question.
Difficult to produce reliable polls for the legislative elections
Please note: the votes for the legislative elections will be very different from those cast for this presidential election. Other components structure this vote: the weight of the parties established in the territories, the political personalities appreciated locally, the political rapprochements at the level of the constituencies, and the method of voting, majority in two rounds. All this makes the job of pollsters difficult. But if it is impossible to make projections, certain elements must be taken into account to measure the balance of power. In the 566 metropolitan and overseas constituencies (excluding the constituencies of French nationals living abroad), Emmanuel Macron came out on top, in the first round of the presidential election, in 256. Marine Le Pen in 206, Jean -Luc Mélenchon in 104, Valérie Pécresse in… none. But remember that in 2017, Marine Le Pen managed to lead the first round of the presidential election in 216 constituencies; the far-right party had only managed to elect 9 deputies.